Bet 365 Cambridgeshire Handicap 1m1f Newmarket Oddsguru Tips

cambridgeshire guruWith only 7 “Jollies” obliging over the last four decades, in the 30+ runner, cavalry charge, up the Rowley Mile, which is The Cambridgeshire, it’s clearly a difficult heat to crack, but one man who has done so on 3 occasions is training Maestro, John Gosden. Two of his victories were achieved with 3yo’s which makes both his contenders from the Classic Generation, Wissahickon and Style Hunter of interest.

The former, a son of record breaking American Sire, Tapit, has won 4 of his 6 starts, and was quite impressive last time, winning a Chelmsford AW Class2 Handicap
over 10f, off a mark of 101.

john gosden guru

Four-midable? Gosden goes for a quarter of wins in Saturday’s big one.

 

Always run at a furious pace, an ability to stay further than 1m1f has proved a decided asset in The Cambridgeshire. This well bred animal, he is a half brother to that super filly, Rainbow View, who Gosden trained to win The Group1
Matron Stakes at Leopardstown in 2009, showed that he is equally adept on Turf, winning a competitive Class2 York Handicap in June. Mr Gosden won the 2007 renewal with a strikingly similar 3yo, Pipedreamer, who had only the 5 runs before his success and if Wissahickon can overcome his relative inexperience he can prove a potent force on Saturday.

The second Gosden 3yo, Style Hunter, with only 7 starts, is another lightly raced type, but showed that he can cope with the demands of a big handicap field when finishing a close 6/30 in the 1m Brittania Handicap at Royal Ascot in June. Racing off a mark of 91 he finished 2 1/2L behind the winner Ostilio (rec 1lb) and followed up with a facile win over Easy Tiger 5 week’s ago at Goodwood to earn his new rating of 100 and get into Saturday’s contest. As The Brittania winner Ostilia is now rated 110, Style Hunter looks well handicapped and with form over 10f has plenty to recommend him.

william haggas guruThe Willie Haggas (pictured) trained 4yo, Alfaaris started the current campaign on a mark of 87, and following 4 excellent efforts, (won 2,second twice) this very progressive animal races off a mark of 104 at the weekend. He may have been a tad unlucky last time when pilot, Jim Crowley, may have overdone the waiting tactics in the 10 1/2f Sky Bet Handicap at York 5weeks ago. Racing off a mark of 101 he was travelling on the bit 2f out but ran out of room, and couldn’t get to the enterprisingly ridden winner, Pivoine. He meets Pivoine on 5lbs better terms on Saturday and back at 9f the Haggis horse should reverse the placings.

Roger Varian has never won a Cambridgeshire but with 3 entries, all in the colours of Sheik Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum this time he will be hoping to get his name on the scoresheet. His best chance would seem to lie with the 4yo son of Oasis Dream, Sharja Bridge, who has been steadily progressive in his 7 race career to date. He ran a very encouraging heat first time up this term when racing off a mark of 99 he was only beaten 1/2L by the talented Oasis Charm over course and distance in May. The pair finished 4L clear of the 3rd, Third Time Lucky, in a good time for the conditions so the form looks solid. He ran a decent race next time in the 10f Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing 4 1/4L behind the winner in 8th. He was close up with a furlong to run but didn’t quite get home and faded in the last 75yards. Following a 65 days break he ran well again finishing 4/18 behind Poets Society in a 1mile York Handicap 5 week’s ago. Racing off Saturday’s mark of 106 he was 1 1/4L behind the current Cambridgeshire Favourite, Kynren, who he meets on 3lbs better terms on Saturday. Sharja Bridge is out of the very successful German brood mare, Quetena, (all 4 of her offspring are decent winners and Sharja Bridge’s full brother, Querari, has won at the highest level, Group1 1m2f Heavy Capannelle 2010, and now stands as a stallion) so his breeding offers hope of plenty more to come.

The Aidan O’Brien trained, Kenya put up an amazing performance when coming home 3 1/2L clear of his field in the 1m Irish equivalent and put in another excellent effort when finishing 2nd in a 1m Leopardstown Group2 last time but both attempts beyond a mile has seen him finish last and none of his dams seven offspring stayed beyond 1m1/2f

The Saeed bin Suroor trained Very Talented ran a terrific race as a 3yo to finish 3rd in the 2016 renewal. Racing on the opposite side to the winner he won the race on his side but obviously sustained a setback and wasn’t seen on a racecourse again until making a winning reappearance at Chelmsford off a mark of 98 9 days ago. He won pretty comfortably from the good yardstick Firmament and doesn’t look badly treated on Saturday’s mark of 104 especially if one considers the way he trounced the now rated 102 Linguistic over Doncaster’s straight mile as a 2yo.

Selection : Style Hunter (if abs Sharja Bridge)
E.W.          :  Sharja Bridge

Qipco 2000Gns Tips 1mile (Rowley) Newmarket Saturday

Rock The Kasbah gave us a good run for our money in last week’s bet365 Gold Cup but the ground had gone against him, and he did well to hold onto second place behind the runaway winner Stepback to whom he was conceding a stone. The dreadful weather has had a huge influence on results all through this winter so let’s hope the forecasters have got it right, and the first Classic of the year on Saturday is run with the Sun shining on a decent racing surface.

Aidan O’Brien, with an astonishing eight wins in the race, (an all time record), won four of the five British Classics last season, including the 2000gns, (with Churchill) and will be hoping to get off the mark again this year at the first time of asking. Of his quartet of entries at the time of writing, the two to concentrate on are Gustav Klimt, and last year’s Group1, Racing Post Trophy Victor, Saxon Warrior.

The former has won three of his four starts, including the Group2 Superlative Stakes (7f Gd/fm) over The July Course, where despite being hampered and losing his place at the 2 furlong marker, he battled back to win by a head from the useful Nebo. He was quite impressive on his reappearance, winning The Leopardstown 2000gns Trial (7f Hy) putting 1 3/4L between himself and the runner up, Imaging, in the last 150yds. By super stallion, Galileo, out of the Danehill mare Massarra, (a cross much favoured by Coolmore) Gustav Klimt hasn’t had the opportunity to race at the top level yet, (withdrawn from the Group1 National Stakes because of a stone bruise last September),but his full brother, Mars, was placed at the top level and finished 6th in the 2013 renewal of Saturday’s contest. Of further interest from a breeding point of view is that the grand dam, Rafha has produced the two outstanding stallions, Invincible Spirit and Kodiac.

Saxon Warrior has raced three times and won all of them, including last time, when he won the Group1 Racing Post Trophy from Saturday’s opponent, Roaring Lion last October. He was headed by the Gosden horse, who tended to hang left inside the final furlong but gamely fought back to win by a head. There are mixed messages from his pedigree as he is by the very successful Japanese stallion, Deep Impact out of The Galileo mare Maybe, who didn’t seem to train on after a terrific two year old career. She won all five of her starts as a 2yo, including at the top level, but never beyond 7f. She was beaten 10L, finishing third behind Homecoming Queen in the 1000gns and never again troubled the judge in her career. Her only other offspring, Saxon Warrior’s full brother, Pavlenko, has only managed a single maiden victory from eleven starts.

While the Charlie Appleby trained Masar did win two of his six starts as a 2yo, including the Group3 Solario Stakes at Sandown, his overall form didn’t suggest that he might win a 2000gns, an impression reinforced by his first run as a 3yo, where he finished 10th on the dirt at Meydan in March. However, last time he put up a real eye catching performance in The Craven Stakes, Racing over Saturday’s course and distance, he made all to come home 9L clear of White Mocha, with the Racing Post Trophy runner up, Roaring Lion, the 8/13 favourite, another 1/4L back in third. While visually very impressive it’s worth remembering that the runner up was rated 13lbs inferior to masar and the time, 3.1 seconds slower than standard on good ground, was nothing to write home about. However his winter in the sun has obviously done him good and he’s worth a second look.

We can only assume that Roaring Lion didn’t run his race in The Craven but based on his Racing Post form, and his win over Aidan O’Briens’ talented Nelson, in The Royal Lodge last September, he has to be of interest. However that poor performance last time is a serious concern, so perhaps Gosden’s best chance of landing a first 2000gns lies with the lightly raced son of Frankel, Without Parole.

He didn’t see a racecourse until last December when he dotted up in a lowly Class5 on the AW at Newcastle, and was again impressive when winning another Class5 at Yarmouth eleven days ago. The form doesn’t amount to much and Saturday represents a huge step up in class, but it’s worth noting that half brother Tamarkuz has had a hugely successful career, albeit on the AW, winning at the highest level, and banking more than £1.2 million in prize money.

Since winning with Mister Baileys in 1994, Mark Johnston has drawn a blank in the 2000gns but must entertain serious hopes of landing a second with his talented son of Frankel, Elarqam. He is out of that wonderful mare, Attraction, who won five Group ones, including the 1000gns in 2004 for Johnston, and Elarqam has been impressive in winning both of his starts, at York and Newmarket. The form of his win at Headquarters has been franked, with the runner up, Tip Two Win, easily winning his next two races, including a local Group2 in Doha last time. Elarqam not only has his inexperience to overcome, as well as the rest of the field, but coming from this yard, it won’t surprise if he does.

Selection: Elarqam

E.W. : Masar

John Gray

Qipco 1000gns Stakes Betting Tips

Qipco 1000gns Stakes Betting Tips 1m Newmarket Sunday

The Young Master kept the Oddsguru ball rolling in fine style when winning last week’s bet365 Gold Cup at odds of 8/1. He had been available at odds of 14/1 at the time of writing, but let’s not be greedy! He ran a brave race under talented amateur, and part owner, Sam Waley-Cohen. Having got the last fence wrong he was headed by the runner up but battled back bravely to get the decision in the shadow of the post. He clearly relished the marathon trip and bearing in mind Waley-Cohen’s outstanding record over the Grand National fences he is definitely one to keep in mind for next years Aintree Showpiece.

We can be fairly certain that none of Sunday’s 1000gns contenders will ever be asked to jump over the spruce at Aintree, but one thing we can be sure of, is that the winner at the weekend will have covered the eight furlongs of the Rowley Mile in under 100 seconds. The great Henry Cecil had a fantastic record in the race, winning it six times, and the only trainer on Sunday to come close, is French handler, Criquette Head-Maarek. She has won it four times, most recently with Special Duty in 2010 and seeks a fifth with Midweek. Her representative is a filly by Motivator out of a Danzig mare and is a half sister to that very useful miler, (RPR 119) Confront. She has already demonstrated her ability to get a mile, winning over the distance at Saint-Cloud last September and perhaps, just as significantly, in this cold and wet spring, she has had the benefit of a run, which may well confer an advantage over her unraced peers. She was second in a 7f Gp3 (heavy) Maisons-Laffitte contest three weeks ago, where she stayed on nicely. While needing to show considerable improvement to trouble the judge on Sunday, in the hands of genius Criquette, it would come as no surprise if she did.

Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien has won the 1000gns twice and fields three, the hot favourite, Minding, Ballydoyle, and Alice Springs. Minding wound up her 2yo campaign with a most impressive win in the Group1 Fillies Mile over course and distance (good/soft) last October, where she came home 4 1/2L in front of Sunday’s opponent Nathra. Prior to that she had beaten stable companion Ballydoyle by 3/4L in a Group1 over 7f at the Curragh, and as the runner up went on to win the Group1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp, the form is rock solid. While Minding does seem to have outstanding claims, it is worth remembering that both of O’Briens previous winners did have the benefit of a previous outing, and many, including her trainer, think that she may well be suited by further.

Ballydoyle, who is reported to be working well, and already boasts a victory over the favourite, (7f Gd/fm) cannot be easily dismissed, but she probably needs top of the ground conditions to excel, so perhaps the third stable representative, Alice Springs is of more interest. A 550,000gns yearling, this Galileo filly, with eight races under her belt is not short of experience, and has run well at the top level, particularly at Keenland in the States last October, where despite being denied the clearest of runs she ran on well to get within 3/4L of the winner, Catch A Glimpse, in a Grade 1 contest. She has had the benefit of a run, at Leopardstown three weeks ago, where she was sent off the 5/4 favourite in a Group3, contest. She was dropped out in the early stages, and left with too much to do on the heavy ground, wasn’t given a hard race. She did come home strongly to finish 3rd and is bound to have benefited from the run. It would come as no surprise to see her outrun her odds of 20/1!

Mark Johnston, trainer of Lumiere is very bullish about the chance of this daughter of Shamardal. She has only run three times, all over 6f. Having won at Newmarket in July she probably found Yorks easy 6f an insufficient test when finishing second, but back at headquarters ran on gamely to take the Group1 Chevely Park Stakes. Her half sister won over 12f and her dam was a wide margin winner over 7f on her only start as a 2yo, so there is plenty of positives on the distaff for Sunday’s trip. Her style of racing also strongly suggests that a mile will suit, so Master Trainer Johnston could well be leading in his second 1000gns winner at the Weekend.

Another, who is sure to have benefited from a race this miserable Spring, is John Gosden’s Iffraaj filly, Nathra. She was put firmly in her place in The Fillies Mile by Minding but may not have been best suited by the hold up tactics employed by Dettori. She was quite impressive three weeks ago when ridden closer to the pace, and she won easily under a hands and heels ride, running on well over 7f at Newmarket. Gosden won this with Lahan in 2000 so knows what is required, and must have high hopes of bringing up the double on Sunday.

Selection : Lumiere

E.W. : Alice springs (if abs. Nathra)

Cesarewitch Handicap Newmarket 2m2f (Rowley) Saturday

Low Key

The market for this year’s renewal is headed by the David Pipe trained 8yo Low Key and he certainly has plenty to recommend him.

It takes a true stayer to succeed in this unique stamina test, as most of the race is run in a straight line, affording little if any opportunity to get a blow into your animal during the relentless pillar to post gallop. Having exited the stalls in Cambridgeshire, the field takes a sharp right turn and makes it a hell for leather charge across Newmarket Heath to eventually join the Rowley mile and pass the winning post in the adjoining county of Suffolk. Winning form over at least two miles on the flat, or good winning form over hurdles is highly desirable.The race is often targeted by National Hunt stables, with such names as Pipe, Revely, Fitzgerald, Henderson, Martin, and Hobbs figuring on the roll of honour in the last quarter century. Indeed Philip Hobbs has figured twice in the last decade, with Detroit City (2006) and last year with Big Easy. His candidate this year, the ex French Golden Doyen, would be worth a second look, but needs nine above him in the handicap to come out to get a run.

The market for this year’s renewal is headed by the David Pipe trained 8yo Low Key and he certainly has plenty to recommend him. He won the Cesarewitch Trial over course and distance three weeks ago with the very promising 3lbs claimer Tom Marquand in the plate, racing off a mark of 82. He stayed on strongly to beat another of Saturday’s contenders, Encrypted Message by 3 1/2L and should confirm the form at the weekend. He has now won five times, (twice over hurdles) for the Nicholshane Maestro, who clearly has discovered the key to this eight year old, who only joined the team last year. He has already improved by at least 25lbs since joining the Pipe Academy so Saturday’s mark of 86 looks highly doable and with young Marquand again claiming 3lbs his prospects look decidedly rosy.

Another National Hunt trainer, Lucy Wadham, has an interesting contender with her 6yo gelding Noble Silk, partnered by Oisin Murphy. He ran a fine race over 2m4f at Royal Ascot keeping on well to finish 4th to Clondaw Warrior to whom he was conceding 5lbs. Following a nine weeks break, he disappointed at York but ran a more promising trial for this last time at Doncaster, going down by 3L over an inadequate 14f off a mark of 94. Bound to be much better suited by Saturday’s trip and racing off 94 again, the current odds of 40/1 look generous, and having had a light campaign is one for the short list.

Tony Martin’s Quick Jack who finished a close third last year, tries again off a 7lbs higher mark and this tough competitor, who won the hugely competitive Galway Hurdle at the end of July merits maximum respect. He was a gallant second in the Chester Cup in May going down by 3/4L to the subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Trip To Paris to whom he was conceding 6lbs. After his Galway triumph he never got going when favourite for the Ebor Handicap at York seven weeks ago. Badly drawn over an inadequate trip the York form can be ignored, but in view of his run in this last year, and his second in the Chester Cup, I wonder if he quite gets home over 18f. Certainly off a 7lbs higher mark than last year he has it all to do.

There is the whiff of a “Prescott plot” about the way Sir Mark’s William Of Orange has been campaigned. Placed over 14f in his first two races this year, he ran his best race of the season when upped to 16f at York in July, running on strongly to take second at the post, 3/4L behind Eshtiall after a troubled passage. Subsequently tried over 21f at Goodwood he didn’t seem to quite get home, and then, having been sent to the front for the first time, in an attempt to make all,in his last race, the Doncaster Cup, he faded from two furlongs out to finish seventh behind stablemate Pallasator. He races off a mark only 5lbs higher than that promising run at York, so it would be no surprise to see him involved at the finish.

Roger Varian’s 4yo Montjeu gelding Steve Rogers looked well suited by the step back up in trip when taking a two mile Cl3 Chester handicap four weeks ago off a mark of 83. There was nothing special about the form, but he did travel really well throughout and went about his business very professionally when asked. A winner of five of his seven races since January and racing off a mark of 87 this very genuine animal may well live up to merit his Captain America pseudonym*.

*Steve Rogers was the alter-ego of Captain America.

Selection: Low Key

E.W. : William Of Orange

Cambridgeshire Handicap Tips Newmarket (Rowley) 1m1f Saturday

Cambridgeshire Betting Preview.

Sir Michael Stoute’s 5yo gelding Abseil is our tip to land Saturday’s big one.

I suspect it may be some time before F. Berry gets the leg up on another Chapple-Hyam horse after the ride he gave last week’s selection, Buckstay, in the Ayr Gold Cup. Held up out the back with the washing, he had to come from an impossible position, but finished best of all, going down by less than a length in fifth place. Not one of Fran’s greatest rides! Having got that off our chest let’s have a look at Saturday’s cavalry charge at Newmarket.

Weight as we know is a great leveller, and only one horse, (Educate, 9st9lbs, 2013) has defied a burden above 9st5lbs since Cap Juluca won with the steadier of 9st12lbs twenty years ago. Indeed thirteen winners in the same period carried less than 9st. As always in these big handicaps, plenty of experience of racing in large fields is a must. An ability to stay further than Saturday’s nine furlongs is a definite plus with many previous winners having form over ten furlongs and further on their C.V.’s. A decent performance in their most recent outing has been of paramount significance, with hardly any of the last thirty five winners failing to perform in their penultimate race. With thirty five runners spread across Newmarket Heath you would expect the draw to be of some significance, but this has rarely been the case, and indeed in last years renewal the shd second was drawn on the other side of the track to the winner.

That winner, the now 6yo Bronze Angel, tries for an unprecedented third win in the one hundred and seventy six years old handicap. The 2012, and 2013 winner, does thrive in the Autumn, and showed his treble aspirations were no forlorn hope when winning a Doncaster handicap last time off a mark of 104. Ridden by 3lbs claimer, Louis Steward, he won by 1 1/2L from that good yardstick Man Of Harlech. As his two previous wins were achieved off 95 and 99 he does seem to be up against it off his new mark of 108, but the Newmarket race does seem to bring out the best in him, so this 6yo warrior is not easily passed over.

Sir Michael Stoute’s 5yo gelding Abseil catches the eye. He looked a tad unlucky last time at Epsom in June over 1m1/2f when racing off a mark of 99 he finished a nk and 3/4L behind Grazie, and Andrew Baldings filly Merry Me. As the Balding filly has gone on to aquit herself well at listed and pattern level, the lightly raced Abseil, who meets Merry Me on 4lbs better than Epsom, doesn’t look badly treated off a mark of 100. His run at Epsom suggested that further would suit, and as he clearly goes well after a break, is short listed.

Michael Halford’s 3yo Teofilo colt Portage won a Cl2 Ascot handicap in July off a mark of 90 (1m sft) and ran a decent race last time at the Curragh, finishing second to the 5yo Hint of a Tint, with the useful Brendan Bracken back in fifth, off a mark of 98. Set to race off the same mark at the weekend, giving him a nice racing weight of 8st7lbs, and with William Buick in the plate he looks another well worth considering.

David O’Meara’s 5yo Dylan Thomas gelding, Earth Drummer ran well when finishing 6th in a 1m2 1/2f, fifteen runner, York handicap last time out. He looked to have a chance at the furlong post but probably didn’t quite get home and went down by 4L. In his previous race at Ascot over 8f he was beaten a half length by Halation, whom he meet on a pound better terms on Saturday. His very talented trainer may well feel that Saturday’s intermediate trip will suit,and with stable jockey Tudhope up, is another well worth considering.

Can Richard Fahey cap a great season by winning with his progressive 3yo gelding Third Time Lucky? Rated 91 after a close fourth in a Goodwood handicap at the end of July he probably needed to win at Thirsk three weeks ago to get into Saturday’s contest and did so in style. Leading on the bit over a furlong out, he went clear, and despite being heavily eased in the closing stages was still 3 1/2L clear at the line. Saturday’s examination will obviously be rather more rigorous, but clearly the Fahey gelding is on a sharp upward curve and with his light weight of 8st4lbs, it will be no surprise if he adds to the Malton Maestro’s burgeoning C.V.

Selection : Abseil.

E.W. : Third Time Lucky.