Saturday sees the final major handicap of the flat racing season when a maximum field of not more than 23 go to post for what is always a highly competitive affair. Never an easy heat to predict, only a single Jolly, (the David O’Meara trained, Open Eagle, 5 years ago) has managed to win since Snow Princess passed the post in front 24 years ago. However, on a more positive note, in recent renewals, winner finding has not been impossible, and the last 6 victors have been returned at an SP of 10/1 or less. At the time of writing the current favourite, Deja, is trading around the 5/1 mark and has the profile of one laid out for the contest.
A 4yo colt, Deja, is trained by the dual Derby winning handler, Peter Chapple-Hyam, (Dr Devious 1992, and Authorised 1997) and the son of Youmzain, in his 5 race career, has shown a very progressive profile. He has won all of his last 4 starts, and racing over 12f for the first time 129 days ago, when making his seasonal debut, he put up his most impressive performance to date, coming home 3 1/2L clear of the decent yardstick, Soto Sizzler, on Kempton’s AW track, off a mark of 93. He showed that he is equally adept on turf, and can handle the demands of a big field handicap, when easily winning a 17 runner Pontefract heat over 10f in October 2018. He hasn’t been seen since Kempton, (Have his Uber shrewd connections been protecting his handicap mark?) but racing off a mark of 100 he looks really well handicapped, and with his proven ability to act on soft ground looks one to be very definitely interested in.
Saeed Bin Suroor won with the 3yo, Prize Money in 2016 and has another likely looking type from the Classic generation with the 3yo, Passion And Glory. Unraced at two, he has won 2 of his 5 starts, both at 10f, but the manner of his latest win at Doncaster on heavy ground, 15 days ago, suggests that Saturday’s trip should be within his compass. Driven clear over a furlong out, he ran on resolutely to hold the challenge of Saturday’s opponent, Dark Lochnagar by a neck. Stoutly bred, by Cape Cross, sire of Derby and Arc winners Sea The Stars and Golden Horn, he beat the now 105 rated
El Misk by 1 3/4L in August, and looks very fairly treated on Saturday’s mark of 93, giving him the flyweight of 8-3 to carry.
Mind you the runner up in that Doncaster heat, Dark Lochnagar, meeting the Bin Suroor Horse on 2lbs better terms, has to enter calculations. It’s unlikely that his talented trainer, Keith Dalgleish, has had too many better bred animals than Dark Lochnagar in his care as he is by the Derby winner Australia, a son of the great Galileo, and is out of the 2005 1000gns winner, Virginia Waters. The yard is in top form and it wouldn’t surprise to see him involved at the business end on Saturday if getting into the race, ( needs 4 above him to come out).
There seems to be plenty of interest in the markets in Hugo Palmer’s 4yo son of Frankel, Collide. A winner of 4 of his 10 starts he made his first attempt at 12f a winning one when winning a Kempton Class3 on his seasonal debut in April off a mark of 96. He followed up with two respectable efforts at York, 4/18, and Royal Ascot 5/19, but finished out the back last time over 14f at Headquarters in July. Twice a winner on soft, Hugo has booked the excellent 3lbs claimer, Ciaran Fallon, and he looks set for a big run on his mark of 98 at the weekend.
If the Mark Johnston trained, Bo Samaraan gets into the race, (needs 3 above him to come out) he could be interesting. The 3yo son of Sea The Stars failed to win in his first 8 starts but has come good the last twice, winning a 12f Catterick Class4 on heavy ground 11 days ago off a mark of 85, with a dour staying performance. Mark has won this twice before so knows what is required and Bo Samaraan, an improving 3yo is just the type the Middleham trainer excels with.
Irish trainers have had a fair old time harvesting top English handicaps this season, and Tony Martin will be hoping to add to their haul with his 4yo filly, Melburnian.
A daughter of Zambezi Sun, she has a relatively poor strike rate of 3/21 but demonstrated in emphatic style 14 days ago how well suited by a big field 12f handicap run on testing ground she is. Racing off a mark of 77 in Leopardstown’s October Handicap on heavy ground, she took it up at the furlong marker and stayed on strongly to win easily by 2 3/4L. She is a half sister to the very talented Heartbreak City,
(also trained by Tony) who improved with age (was only beaten a head in the
Melbourne Cup as a 6yo) and Melburnian may prove to be a similar type. The old adage to follow a filly in form this time of the year could be well worth remembering.
Selection. : Bo Samaraan if abs Deja
EW. : Melburnian. If abs Passion And Glory