BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2 1/2m Cheltenham (Old Course) Saturday

Cheltenham RacesInaugurated in 1960, this valuable Grade3 Handicap, with it’s maximum field of 20, is invariably run with the choke out from flag-fall, and is no place for the faint hearted. The great Martin Pipe with an amazing 8 wins before retiring, certainly understood the type of animal required to succeed in this tough handicap, and son David will be hoping that a little of the Old Mans Magic has rubbed off when he attempts to win the race for the second time on Saturday with the ex French, Kings Socks.

The 6yo has only raced 3 times since finishing 2nd (Btn 2 1/2L) to the outstanding Willie Mullins trained, Footpad, now rated 166, in a French Grade1 Hurdle back in
June 2016. Thanks to niggling problems, it was a frustrating 607 days interval between his arrival  at Pond House in September 2016, before the son of Kings Best could make his British racecourse debut. He finished 3rd to Modus in a Class 2 Kempton Graduation Chase last February and 34 days later ran well to finish 5th, 8 1/2L behind
The Storyteller off a mark of 140 in a Grade3 Handicap at The Cheltenham Festival. Sent off the 7/2fav for the Red Rum Chase at Aintree the following month he was pulled up before 3 out and hasn’t been seen since. None of the above inspires any great confidence, but the suspicion lingers that we have yet to see the best of the Pipe horse, and off his mark of 139, giving him a racing weight of 10-4 he looks dangerously well handicapped.

Nicky Henderson’s sole success came with Fondmort 15 years ago, but he goes out to bat this time with a very live contender, the 7yo son of Oscar, Rather Be. He hasn’t raced since going down by a Head, off a mark of 153, to Mister Whitaker in The Close Brothers Novices Handicap (Soft) at The Festival in March, and meets that opponent on 9lbs better terms at the weekend. He goes well at Prestbury Park, running  well in the 2016 Festival Bumper, and significantly, “The Close Brothers”was run over Saturday’s track, The Old Course. Lack of a recent run is of no concern as he has won 3 times following a break of 6 months or longer. He looks nicely handicapped on a mark of 149 giving him a racing weight of 11-0 and has a serious chance of providing The Master Of Seven Barrow’s with a second success.

Despite being 9lbs worse off with Rather Be, Mick Channon’s Mister Whitaker deserves plenty of respect as he is clearly an animal improving at a rate of knots.

mick channon windmill

Will we get to see Mick Channon’s famous windmill on Saturday?

He has won his last three races, including the above heat over course and distance, and is bound to have benefited hugely from his reappearance win over Happy Diva at Carlisle 14 days ago. Very buzzy at the start he finished strongly up the Carlisle hill to beat the 140 rated runner up and should be a much more settled horse on Saturday. A 7lbs rise for the win looks quite severe but this 6yo, half brother to the useful, Broadway Buffalo, probably has plenty more to offer, and with the stable firing on all cylinders will be hard to keep out of the placings.

The Neil Mulholland trained 7yo, Kalondra would have gone close to winning The Galway Plate but for falling at the 2nd last racing off a mark of 147, and looks well handicapped on only a pound higher. He is another who enjoys the Prestbury Park air, finishing 3rd to Traffic Fluide last April and winning a Novices Chase last December both over the New Course, and coming from a yard in form is worth considering.

Irish stables have only taken the prize twice in the last 40 years, and if this poor record is to be improved, the sole representative from across The Irish Sea, Black Scorpion, will need a few above him in the Handicap to come out, but if he does get into the race, he wouldn’t be the worst EW punt, at 33/1 in the contest. He won nicely at Listowel in September and probably found the 3mile trip in The Munster National last time beyond him.

The BetVictor hasn’t been the greatest heat for top weights, but having said that it’s hard to ignore the claims of this year’s racecard no1, Frodon. bryony frost betvictorOne of 4 entries from the twice winning yard of Paul Nicholls, the 6yo, French bred Frodon, has won 8 of his 19 starts over fences, and following wind surgery and a 193 day break, put up a career best effort 3 weeks ago when winning the Grade2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree, off a mark of 158, under a great ride from Bryony Frost (pictured). Frodon has won twice at Cheltenham, including a near unique victory as a 4yo in the 2016 “Caspian Caviar,” and indeed was travelling strongly in that year’s renewal of the BetVictor when blundering away his chance at the 4th last. The son of Nickname has been jumping fences since his 3yo days in France and May only now be reaching his full potential, (has been entered for The King George V1) and it will come as no surprise if he joins that select band of Top Weighted Winners, particularly if Ms Frost keeps the ride.

Selection : Mister Whitaker
E.W.          : Frodon

John Gray

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November Handicap 1m4f Doncaster Tips Saturday

doncaster flat racingSaturday at Doncaster brings the curtain down on another turf flat racing season, and punters hoping to improve their bank balance, should approach the feature handicap with some caution, as only a single “Jolly”has obliged in the last 22 years. Mind you, it hasn’t by any means been an impossible heat to crack, as 6 of the last 10 winners have been returned with an SP in single figures, and two of those have been trained by the race’s  most successful handler, (5 wins) John Gosden, which has to make his sole representative on Saturday, the 4yo colt Royal Line of particular interest.

By Dubawi, he was unraced as a 2yo, and has only had the 6 starts. He hasn’t been seen since his last run at the end of April when his form took a decidedly upward trajectory, winning Epsom’s Great Metropolitan Handicap off a mark of 95 by
2 3/4L from Golden Wolf, with that good yardstick, Firefighting, a further 3 1/4L back in 3rd. A 10lbs rise to 105 looks quite severe but, beautifully bred, he is a half brother to the Group2 winner, Masterstroke and the Group3 winning Mr Moonlight Magic, he just
could be a Group Horse running in a Handicap. With his ability to go well fresh, (won 1st time out) he may be up to defying his new mark.

2015 November Handicap preview.

There have been 18 winners from the Classic generation since 1980, and Willie Haggis,
(won with Conduit 5 year’s ago) fields a likely looking 3yo, My Lord And Master, this time. Lightly raced, he won the 2nd of his two juvenile heats, beating his stable companion, Young Rascal, (now rated 116) by 6L in a Nottingham Maiden. Just beaten on his 3yo debut, he followed up with a creditable 2nd in Chester’s Dee Stakes in May,  but 17 days later was well beaten in a Longchamp Group3. However last time out he showed the talent was still there, going down by a Neck, off a mark of 99, in a 10 1/2f York Handicap, finishing with great gusto on the soft ground. Stoutly bred, by
Master craftsman out of a Dalakhani mare, he should be well suited by Saturday’s trip, is only 4lbs higher than York, and with Daniel Tudhope, who won on Open Eagle in 2014 doing the steering, has plenty to recommend him.

The Clive Cox trained Now Children took a considerable step forward 27 days ago when winning a Class2 Goodwood Handicap (1m4f Soft) by 4 1/2L from Saturday’s opponent, Wolf Country, on only his 7th racecourse appearance. By a miler out of a sprinter it is surprising that staying appears to be the Cox’s horses forte, and it may “be, that campaigned over middle distances, he is beginning to realise his full potential. With a rise of 6lbs for that facile Goodwood victory looking very fair he will be hard to keep out of the places at the weekend.

There has never been an Irish trained winner of Doncaster’s November Handicap but top handler, Ger Lyons will be hoping to rewrite the script with his 4yo gelding, Inscribe. He does need a few above him in the handicap to come out to get a run but if he does, with only 8-7 to carry and Joe Fanning doing the steering, he has plenty in his favour. Lightly raced, the 4yo son of American stallion, Harlan’s Holiday, is out of a Sadler’s Wells mare and has won 3 of his 7 races on turf.  The manner of his two victories over 10f, at Naas and The Curragh, on testing ground, strongly suggest that Saturday’s trip will be fine and it won’t be the biggest surprise if the trophy ends up on the other side of The Irish Sea.

Racing over 12f for the first time, with trainers daughter, Megan, in the plate, the Paul Nicholls trained Birds of Prey looked a tad unlucky, to go down by a Shd in Haydock’s Ladies Trophy Handicap 61 days ago. Headed by the winner inside the 2f marker, he fought back, and kept up a persistent challenge all the way to the line. Campaigned over shorter when trained in Ireland by John Oxx, he won twice for the Curragh Maestro on testing ground, and looks nicely handicapped on 92 which including Ms Nicholls 5lb claim, means he will only have the featherweight of 8-4 to carry.

The Hughie Morrison trained Buzz put in a really solid performance 7 week’s ago when getting up on the line to win a Class2 Newbury Handicap off a mark of 93 over an inadequate 10f. Back up to 12f off a 5lbs higher mark the son of Motivator is worth a second look.

Despite trips to Switzerland Germany and Ireland, last year’s third, Eddystone Rock has failed to hit the back of the net in his 11 subsequent starts but as a result gets into Saturday’s contest off a 9lbs lower mark. He ran well enough last time finishing 5/20 in a valuable Naas handicap to suggest that he can be competitive off his mark of 91 and could be interesting, especially on soft ground.

Selection : Now Children
E.W.          : My Lord And Master    Eddystone Rock.

John Gray

bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade2) 3m1f Wetherby Tips

The North Yorkshire venue stages “The Charlie Hall” on Saturday, the first big chase of the season and if the lack of rainfall in the Wetherby area doesn’t discourage any of the current 11 entries from participating, we could be in for a vintage renewal. The ground at the time of writing is described as Good and the Clerk of the course assures that watering will continue so Saturday’s ground shouldn’t have Firm anywhere in the description, which will be welcome news to Colin Tizzard, the trainer of the current favourite, Thistlecrack. Colin won with the marvellous Cue Card three years ago and he will be hoping that the 10yo Thistlecrack can bring the prize back to Milborne Port for a second time.

colin tizzard

Colin Tizzard aims for what would be a memorable double

 

A winner of 4 Grade1s over hurdles, (including The World Hurdle at Cheltenham 2016) he was a latecomer to chasing, winning at the first time of asking in October 2016 as an 8yo, and then demonstrating 2 months later, when winning Kempton’s
King George V1 Chase, that he was just as potent a force over the larger obstacles. Following a titanic battle with the late lamented, Many Clouds for Cheltenham’s Cotswold Chase 32 days later, he was beaten a Head, and was put on the easy list for 307 days. A disappointing reappearance at Newbury at the beginning of December was followed by a moderate 4th in The King George. He sustained a stress fracture in training and hasn’t been seen since, but trainer Tizzard reports him in great form for Saturday, and if back to his best will be hard to beat. However it has to be said that his odds of around 2/1 for an animal with plenty of question marks hanging over him, not least his liking for plenty of give, look decidedly skinny.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times, twice with Ollie Magern and last year with Bristol De Mai and he will be hoping that the latter can put his last three disappointing efforts behind him and bring up win number 4 for the Naunton Handler. The popular grey won last year’s renewal from his stable companion, Blaklion, (rec6lbs) on his seasonal debut, and went on to beat Cue Card by an astonishing 57L 3 week’s later in Haydock’s Betfair Chase. The wheels appeared to have come off in his next two races, The King George and The Cotswold, but following wind surgery, and a 75 day break, he put up a better performance when finishing 2nd (Btn 7L) to Might Bite in an Aintree Grade1. Reports from Naunton are positive and if back to his best this still young chaser, (despite seeming to have been around for ages is only 7) will make them all go.

Connections of the 8yo, Double Shuffle will be hoping the rain stays away as 3m1f around Wetherby on good ground is probably as far as he wants to go. A son of that good National Hunt Stallion, Milan, he hasn’t won for nearly 2 years but ran a blinder when finishing 2nd, 1L behind Might Bite in last year’s King George. Both his 2 subsequent efforts were disappointing but trainer Tom George reports him in great form and as one who can go well after a break, (hasn’t raced for over 6 months) needs considering.

Paul Nicholls (pictured) has won the heat 3 times, twice with the Gold Cup winner,
See More Business in 1999 and 2000, and with Silviniaco Conti in 2012 so certainly knows what is required. paul nicholls charlie hallHis two representatives this time are the highly promising 6yo, Clan Des Obeaux, and the very consistent Black Corton. The former has won 3 of his 10 races over fences, and his penultimate effort, finishing 2nd to the useful
Guitar Pete, to whom he was conceding 22lbs in Cheltenham’s Caviar Gold Cup last December was particularly praiseworthy. Following a 117 day break he again ran well finishing 3rd, 10 1/4L behind Might Bite at Aintree. He is another who can go well fresh and won’t mind the ground. He is the type to continue to improve and with the yard going well is one for the shortlist.

2017 Charlie Hall Chase race preview.

The second Ditcheat contender,the wonderfully consistent 7yo, Black Corton is 8/13 over fences and 7 of these have been achieved with the talented Bryony Frost in the plate. The combination looked particularly good when winning the Grade1 Kauto Star
Novices Chase at Kempton last Christmas and he may have been feeling the effects of a long season when well beaten in his last two races both Grade 1s at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. Following a well deserved 6 months break we could well see a rejuvenated Black Corton resume his upwardly mobile trajectory.

Selection: Clan Des Obeaux (if abs Black Corton)
E.W.         : Double Shuffle

John Gray

Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group1) 1m Doncaster

Known as The Racing Post Trophy for the last 28 years, it is the final Group1 run anywhere in Britain in 2018, and this terms renewal takes it’s new title from the eponymous firm of Stockbrokers. It has proved a solid guide to The Derby with 5 winners going on to success in The Epsom Classic. Reference Point set the ball rolling in 1986 and Aidan O’Brien’s Camelot became the fifth winner in 2011 to collect The Epsom Blue Riband. There have been none since but last year’s winner, Saxon Warrior finished 4th and the 2013 winner, Kingston Hill finished 2nd at Epsom in 2014. The Master Of Ballydoyle has won the contest an amazing 8 times, two of whom (High Chaparral and Camelot) went on to Epsom glory and he will be hoping that one of his 8 contenders (at the time of writing) can get the first leg of the double done on Saturday. Coolmore Stud’s marvellous stallion, Galileo sired the 2012 winner Kingsbarns and following an excellent performance last time out by his son, Japan, hopes must be high of a repeat.

Japan is out of the prolific Danehill mare, (a cross much favoured by the geneticists at Coolmore) Shastye, which makes him a full brother to the talented, Sir Isaac Newton, and the top class mare, Secret Gesture. Unplaced on his racecourse debut, (Curragh 1st Sept) he won a modest Listowel heat 12 days later, staying on strongly over an inadequate 7f, and two and a half weeks after that, took a major step forward when winning the Group2 Beresford Stakes over a mile at Naas, (a race also won by last year’s winner, Saxon Warrior). He was the least fancied Of the 3 O’Brien runners that day, and despite a far from easy passage, he got himself out of trouble at the furlong marker, and finishing strongly, nailed his stable companion, the warm 11/8 Fav, Mount Everest on the line. Further progress will be required on Saturday but with his positive attitude, and impressive pedigree it could well be forthcoming.

Current market leader, and Japan’s stablemate, Magna Grecia, was only having his second start when beaten a neck by the talented French colt, Persian King,(won his 2 previous races by an aggregate of11L) in the Group3 Autumn Stakes at Headquarters a fortnight ago, where stablemate, Western Australia, was a further 6 1/4Lback in 4th. A slightly tenuous form-line through the 4th, would suggest that the first two home are at least equal to, if not superior, to the highly promising Madhmon, who won a Leopardstown Group2 quite easily from Broome 6 week’s ago and the runner ups subsequent close 2nd in Longchamp’s Group1, Prix Jean-Luc Legardre adds definite gravitas to the form. If we take the above form at face value, Magna Grecia will be hard to beat.

The 3rd contender from the Ballydoyle Octet, Norway is a full brother to the 2013 Epsom Derby winner, Ruler Of The World, and he showed that he was going the right way when winning the 10f Listed Zetland Stakes 2 week’s ago. In a muddling race, the son of Galileo quickened of a slow pace to land the spoils, and while further improvement is required at the weekend, he certainly won’t fail for lack of stamina.

The all conquering Gosden yard is represented by Turgenev and Kick On, and of the two, Turgenev looks the more likely to give the trainer his first success in the contest. A son of Dubawi out of a Group2 winning mare, he hacked up in a lowly Class5 heat on Newcastle’s AW, (Sept24) on his 2nd racecourse appearance, and 9 days ago was most impressive when easily beating Aidan O’Brien’s Il Paradiso, in a Class4 Newmarket Novices. Il Paradiso is one of the lesser lights at Ballydoyle, and that Newmarket heat was run in a time nearly 5 seconds slower than standard, but nevertheless, the manner of the victory certainly caught the eye, and Turgenev could be anything.

The Charlie Hills trained Phoenix Of Spain has won two of his four starts, and the manner of his second victory, in York’s 7f Group3 Acomb Stakes, suggested a rapidly improving animal. He stayed on well over the 7f trip to win by 1 1/2L from Watan and had Broome 6 3/4L back in 6th. Further progress was confirmed when stepped up to Group2 level next time, in Doncaster’s 7f Champagne Stakes. He was an excellent 2nd to the subsequent Group1 Dewhurst winner, Too Darn Hot, (Btn 1 3/4L) and if he stays the extra furlong on Saturday he could be involved. There are mixed messages coming from his pedigree, his half brother, Lucky Beggar, trained by Hills, was best at 5f, but 2 other half brothers, Central Square and Kingsdesire stayed 10f.

Selection : Japan (if abs Magna Grecia)

EW. : Norway

John Gray

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (sponsored by Qipco) Group1 1mile straight Ascot Saturday

quipco stakes ascotAidan O’Brien with four successes, just shades the training honours by one from John Gosden, but the French, with two victories in the last four years, have to be taken seriously and the contender from across “La Manche” this year, Recoletos, has plenty to recommend him.

A 4yo son of the 3 times Group1 winning sire, Whipper, he has won 7 of his 13 starts, 4 times over 10f+, but significantly, his two top level successes, have come since being dropped in trip. A well beaten 4th in last year’s 10f Qipco Champion Stakes, he made a successful start to this year’s campaign when winning an 8f Group2 at Saint Cloud, and then made his top level breakthrough when comfortably winning the 9f Group1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp in May.

quipcostakesrecoletos

Recoletos has a terrific chance this weekend

 

Edgy and sweating before the start of The Queen Anne Stakes at The Royal Meeting in June, he failed to fire on the fast ground, finishing 7/15 but following a 54 day break, he was an excellent 2nd to Jessica Harrington’s brilliant filly, Alpha Centauri, (rec 10lbs) in the Group1 Prix Jacques Le Maroit at Deauville on Good/Soft ground. He was 2 1/2L behind the Harrington filly, but had Freddy Heads Group1 winning colt, With You, 3 1/2L back in 3rd. Sent off the 23/10 Fav for Longchamp’s Group1, 8f Prix Du Moulin 6 week’s ago he put up a career best performance, getting up in a driving finish to beat Windcharmer a Head with Sir Michael Stoute’s Sussex Stakes runner up, Expert Eye, 1 1/4L back in 3rd. The Michel Laffon-Parias trained 4yo is clearly on the up, and with his proven ability to handle soft ground deserves his position near the top of Saturday’s market.

It is a little surprising to see John Gosden’s brilliant 3yo, Roaring Lion, (also engaged in the 10f Qipco Champion Stakes on the same card) reverting to a mile as he has certainly shown his best form over further, (won his last 3 races, all Group1s at 10f) but he did win last year’s Group2 Royal Lodge over Newmarket’s straight Rowley Mile on easy ground, so with similar conditions in prospect on Saturday, Master Trainer Gosden probably feels that a strongly run race over the trip will suit.

The ex handicapper, Addeybb, has won five of his eight starts, and looked a serious animal when stepped up to Group Class for the first time last April. Sent off the 6/4 Fav for the Group2 bet365 Mile at Sandown on Good/Soft ground, the son of Pivotal traveled well throughout the heat, took it up at the furlong marker, and went clear to win in impressive fashion by 2 3/4L from that good yardstick, the now 114 rated, Stormy Antarctic. With the 116 rated, Here Comes When, 6 1/2L back in 5th, this was a really top notch performance, so his poor showing three weeks later in Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes (8/14 9 3/4L behind Rhododendron) must have come as a great disappointment to connections. He hasn’t been seen since but if Willie Haggis (stable going well at the moment) has the 4yo gelding, who handles soft ground well back to his best he will be a danger to all.

Horse Racing - 2013 Dante Festival - Betfred Dante Stakes Day - York RacecourseThe Karl Burke (pictured) trained filly, Laurens, never wins by far, but that hasn’t stopped her winning an amazing 5 Group1s and so it was again a fortnight ago when she won the Group1, Sun Chariot Stakes by a Head from Saturday’s opponent Happily. This terrific 3yo who has banked nearly £1.5million for connections has been supplemented for Saturday’s race and if reproducing the form that saw her beat that other outstanding filly, Alpha Centauri in Leopardstown’s Matron Stakes, she would be hard to beat. A word of caution though, the Harrington filly was found to be clinically abnormal after that Leopardstown heat.

The Andrew Balding trained 4yo gelding, Beat The Bank, has yet to win at the top level, but connections must have felt it was only a matter of time following a scintillating performance in last year’s Group2 Joel Stakes at Headquarters on Good/Soft ground, where he won by 5L from Sir John Lavery, and had the 114 rated Soverign Debt 8 1/2L back in 4th. However he was well beaten in last year’s renewal, finishing 11 1/2L behind Persuasive, but this term, he got back on track when finishing a slightly unlucky 6th, 1 3/4L behind the winner, Accidental Agent in The Queen Anne, and then winning an Ascot Group2, (round course) in July. His win in the Group2 Celebration Mile 8 week’s ago was another excellent effort and he has had a nice break since, which should leave him one of the freshest in Saturday’s race.

Selection : Recoletos
E.W.          : Beat The Bank

The Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch Handicap 2m2f Newmarket Tips

cesarawitchWhile last year saw the welcome return of the market leader getting his head in front, it has been a poor contest for favourites, Withhold, (Oddsguru’s selection) being only the third Jolly to collect since the great Vintage Crop prevailed in 1992, and in the past decade we have seen winners returned at 66/1, two at 50/1, and another at 25/1 so don’t be put off by a long price. The race uniquely is run over 2 counties, (starts in Cambridgeshire and finishes in Suffolk) and has only the one slight change of direction, a gentle turn around the 10f marker, giving the 35 runners a nearly straight 2m2f to contend with. Always run at a furious gallop from flag fall, stamina is at a huge premium, so contenders without very solid staying credentials are best ignored. Irish yards, with just 2 wins in the last 50 year’s have a very poor record, but Willie Mullins, (3rd last year with Lagos To Vegas) is mob handed at the time of writing, and he’s making a determined effort this term to improve the Celtic record. He trains the  current market leader, Stratum, and this son of Dansili certainly shouldn’t fail on the stamina front.

A 5yo gelding, he is out of the stoutly bred Galileo mare, Lunar Place, and demonstrated his ample stamina credentials in this year’s 2 1/2m Ascot Stakes, keeping on strongly for 3rd place, 2 1/4L behind the winner, stablemate, Lagos To Vegas. He followed up with a comfortable Newbury victory in the 2m1/2f JLT Cup in July, and was then sent off favourite for the 1m6f Ebor Handicap at York last time where he looked unlucky. Held up in the rear by pilot Robert Winston, he was left with an awful lot to do, but still looked a real danger, impressively weaving his way through the field only to be badly hampered 1 1/2f out where he lost all chance. He should be well suited by the step back up in trip and looks fairly treated on his York mark of 102.

williemullinsConnections of the second Mullins runner, the 7yo mare, Limini, have had to be very patient as she was off the course for 503 days prior to making her comeback in a 2m1f Handicap for Qualified Riders at Galway in July, where she finished a commendable 2nd. Bought from France by the Ricci’s in May 2015 she was campaigned exclusively over hurdles in 2016 and 2017, with considerable success, winning three of her 7 starts, including a Cheltenham Festival victory over 2m1f in 2016, and she looked a tad unlucky the following year, again at Cheltenham, when beaten 1 1/2L by the top class Apple Jade over 2m4f, where presumably she sustained that injury that kept her off the racecourse for 503 days. She started a 5/1 shot for the very valuable Petingo Handicap at Leopardstown over 13f, 4 week’s ago, and under a super ride from Saturday’s pilot, Oisin Murphy, led at the furlong marker, and kept on strongly to hold her stable companion, Law Girl, by a head. Racing off the same mark on Saturday, and with Murphy again doing the steering, she has plenty to recommend her.

Ian Williams who trained last year’s ill fated runner up, London Prize, (Oddsguru’s E.W. selection) produced his 7yo, Stars Over The Sea, to win the trial for Saturday’s contest over course and distance by 10L three weeks ago. However he was allowed his own way out front and the time was slow so may struggle with another 8lbs on his back.

The Neil Mulholland trained Vis A Vis looked well suited by the step up in trip when winning a 2mile handicap on the Kempton AW last time (Aug 8) and had previously won a Class4, 14f Sandown Handicap, 53 days earlier on his debut for the stable. By the strong influence for stamina, Dansili, out of the Rainbow Quest mare, Pretty Face his pedigree is all about stamina and could be very well suited by Saturday’s trip. Neil has secured the services of last year’s winning rider, Silvestre de Sousa and looks fairly treated on his mark of 90.

The Aidan O’Brien trained 3yo, Southern France would be only the third 3yo to prevail in the last two decades, but that said, you don’t get many horses from the Classic generation, with the class to finish 3rd in a St Leger competing in The Cesarewitch, and as a son of Galileo, sire of the Ascot Gold Cup winner, Order Of St George and plenty of other staying types, it wouldn’t surprise to see the Ballydoyle colt play a leading role on Saturday.

The Ralph Beckett trained 4yo, Here and Now has won 3 of his 12 starts and was quite impressive in his penultimate race, the valuable Sky Bet Handicap over 2m1/2f at York in August. He stayed on strongly to beat the useful, Davy’s Dilemma by 5L off a mark of 91. Dropped back to 1m6f in a Chester Listed contest 6 week’s ago, he was slow coming out of the gate and never got into a challenging position, but did stay on well and was only 1 3/4L adrift of the winner, Duretto at the line. Well bred, Here And Now is By Dansili out of the top class Hernando mare, Look Here, ( won The Oaks in 2008, 3rd St Leger 2008, Btn Shd when 3rd Coronation Cup 2009) so on breeding should find Saturday’s trip right up his street, and only 4lbs higher than York looks good value at current odds of 20/1.

Selection  : Vis A Vis
EW.            :  Here And Now. (If abs. Stratum)

John Gray

Qatar Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe 1m4f Longchamp preview

arctriomphe

Dancing Brave swoops to the victory of all victories in 86 under Pat Eddery

Worth £2,528,319. to the winner, the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe is the most valuable race on turf run anywhere on the planet, and the most successful trainer, by a country mile, in this fantastic contest, is the French Maestro, Andre Fabre. With seven victories to his credit, he is four clear of his nearest pursuer, Aidan O’Brien, and represented this time by the upwardly mobile, 4yo, Waldgeist, and the talented 5yo Talismanic, has to have decent prospects of landing an eighth.

Waldgeist, a son of the great stallion, Galileo, has won 6 of his 13 starts but, it was only two outings ago, at the beginning of July, that he struck at the highest level.

WaldgeistGuru

The Oddsguru fancies Waldgeist to make a bold charge this weekend

 

Sent off the 4/5 favourite for the Group1 Grand Prix de St Cloud (1m4f Gd-Sft) he only got the better of the Gosden filly, Coronet, in the shadow of the post, but 77 days later was much more impressive when easily beating stable companion, Talismanic by 2 1/2L, over Saturday’s course and distance in the good “Arc” Trial, The Prix Foy, and to give further weight to the form, he had last year’s St Leger winner, Capri, a further 4L back in 5th. Talismanic, having won last year’s Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar, and finished 2nd to the excellent Highland Reel in The Group1 Hong Kong Vase, is no slouch, so this looks a serious step up by the Fabre 4yo. He is out of the Monsanto mare Walderche, who was a Group3 winner on soft and won on heavy, so the weekend forecast for rain in the Paris region shouldn’t present any problems.

Since it’s inception nearly 100 years ago 7 horses have managed to win the great race a second time, but in the last 60 renewals, only two have managed the double, Alleged in 1978, and the fantastic filly Treve 4 years ago, which helps to put into some perspective, the challenge facing John Gosden’s super filly, Enable, on Sunday.

longchampboisdeboulogne

The great race returns to its rightful place in the Bois de Boulogne this year

The injury she sustained to her knee last May and kept her off the course for 342 days, can’t have helped her cause either, but that said, she was pretty impressive when making her belated reappearance on the Kempton AW (1m4f) 29 days ago. In a 4 runner affair, she made all, and running on strongly, easily got the better of the King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes runner up, Crystal Ocean, (gave 8lbs). This
5 times Group1 winner, including last year’s renewal at Chantilly, (has never run at Longchamp) deserves her position at the top of the market, and if successful, would give Mr Gosden a third winner in the race, and enable (forgive the pun) her owner, Prince Khalid Abdullah, to equal the longstanding record held by Marcel Boussac since 1949 of 6 victories in the contest. However her current odds, in a heat with it’s fair share of hard luck stories, look decidedly skinny.

Unraced as a 2yo, the Willie Haggas trained filly, Sea Of Class, has done nothing but improve in her 4 races since making her debut in a 1mile Maiden at Headquarters in April. Showing her inexperience, the 3yo was beaten a neck in that Newmarket heat, but stepped up in trip, this stoutly bred filly, (by Sea The Stars, who was runner up in the 2009 Arc, out of the Hernando mare, Holy Moon) has remained unbeaten in her subsequent 4 races, and was particularly impressive the last twice, winning the Irish Oaks under a hands and heels ride from the Epsom Oaks Victor, Forever Together, and 5 week’s ago running away with The Group1 Yorkshire Equivalent. Held up at the back at York, she made smooth progress at the 2f marker, led inside the final furlong, and left the Gosden trained Coronet, trailing in her wake. The 2 1/4L margin of her victory could easily have been considerably more, and she had the useful Irish filly, Eziyra, (won a Curragh Group2 easily next time out) a further 1L back in 3rd. She has never run on anything worse than good but her dam was a winner on heavy, and her three most successful siblings, Charity Line, Final Score and Thierry Collect, all thrived on plenty of give, so the forecast for rain isn’t a worry, and indeed, if it does come up soft on Sunday, it may enhance her prospects.

We have to rewind 60 years to 1958 to find the last winner of the St Leger to win
“The Arc” when the great Ballymoss prevailed for Vincent O’Brien, and while Nijinsky was an unlucky loser in 1970, and many think that Alleged should have won The St Leger in 1977 prior to his “Arc” success, none of the above, speaks terribly strongly in favour of the chances of this year’s Doncaster Hero, Kew Gardens. However on the plus side, he won The Group1 Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance in July, in a time nearly 2 seconds faster than standard, and there was no fluke about his win over the talented Iah Ti Dar in the St Leger.

Roger Varian’s old boss, the sadly deceased, Michael Jarvis, won with the unconsidered, Carroll House in 1989, and Roger will be hoping for a similar outcome with his 50/1 shot Defoe. The son of Dalakhani won the Group2 Jockey Club Stakes at Headquarters in May and following a 98 days break the 4yo put up a career best performance last time, going down by a neck to Best Solution in Germany’s Top all aged contest, The Group1 Grosser Preis Von Baden, a contest incidentally, the above mentioned Carroll House won in 1988. Clearly progressing nicely, Defoe stays well, and could play a prominent role at the weekend.

Selection : Waldgeist
E.W.          Kew Gardens