Unibet Tolworth Novices Hurdle (Grade1) 2miles Sandown Saturday

nicky henderson oddsguru

Henderson saddles Son of Camas

Following the superb racing we have enjoyed over the holiday period, Saturday’s fare has a distinctly pedestrian feel about it, but Sandown, which hosts the only Grade1 action of the weekend, lightens the gloom a little with a pretty competitive looking field for their top level TolworthNovices Hurdle. Don’t expect to see a future Champion Hurdler on display at the Esher track on Saturday as the 38 runnings since it’s inception in 1976 have yet to produce one, but plenty of top class animals, including the mighty Desert Orchid in 1984, have graced the winners enclosure. Indeed more recently, the 2018 winner, Summerville Boy, went on to win The Supreme Novices, and the 2016 winner, Yorkhill, collected the Ballymore at the Cheltenham Festival. Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times and Paul Nicholls 4, but the trainer with the best recent record, winning 2 of the last 3 renewals, has to be Colin Tizzard, and he fields another likely looking contender this time, the 6yo, Fiddlerontheroof.

Unplaced in 2 PTP’S, his sole success came in a Navan NHF race before joining the Dorset handler from Ireland in October. His first run for his new yard, in Chepstow’s Grade2 Persian War Novices Hurdle, (2m3 1/2f Gd/Sft Oct 11) was a highly promising one. Racing prominently throughout, he jumped ahead at the 2nd last, but was outstayed by the winner Thyme Hill, and was beaten by 2L. However, as the winner went on to win his next 2 races, including Newbury’s Grade1 Challow Hurdle, this was a pretty smart effort by the Tizzard horse on this his hurdling debut. Back at 2miles on Good ground for a Wincanton Novices 29 days later, he looked as if he would be suited by a stiffer test when going down by 3/4L to the subsequent Aintree winner, Edwardstone. He made no mistake next time, winning a 2 mile Novices on Heavy ground over Saturday’s course and distance very easily by 7L from the 128 rated Arrivederci, and if similar conditions prevail on Saturday, will be hard to beat.

The upwardly mobile trainer, Gavin Cromwell, will be hoping to become only the 2nd Irish based handler, (Willie Mullins won 4 years ago with Yorkhill) to land the spoils with his very promising mare, Jeremy’s Flame. The 6yo has won one of her 4 starts over timber, a Listowel Maiden on her hurdling debut last September, and has run well in her last 2 races, going down by 1 1/4L in a Mares Grade3 at Down Royal at the beginning of November, and again finishing a close 2nd, when beaten by the 138 rated Henderson Mare, Floressa, at Newbury 5 weeks ago. By the very successful dual purpose Stallion, Jeremy, there could be plenty more to come from the Irish mare, and her 7lbs Mares allowance, will also come in very handy on Saturday.

The market is headed by the Emma Lavelle trained, 6yo, Hang In There, and since coming to the Wiltshire yard from Margaret Mullins in Ireland last October, has won 2 of his 3 starts. Indeed if the market had it right, (he started a hot 1/2fav) he would have a 100% record for the yard, as following severe interference, he unseated at the first on his debut for the stable in October. Since that mishap it has been a case of upwards and onwards, with easy victories in an Exeter Maiden, and impressively last time, when taking a big step up in class, he landed Cheltenham’s Grade2 Supreme Trial Novices Hurdle by 3L from the 140 rated Pacify, (100 on the flat) 7 weeks ago. By the 4 times Ascot Gold Cup winner, Yeats, out of a mare that has produced the winner of the 3m4f Cork Grand National, Hang In There, could find Saturday’s trip on the sharp side, but he did show plenty of toe in that Cheltenham Grade2 heat, quickening impressively turning in, to go 5L clear, and putting the result beyond doubt. (Looks a big price at the 25/1 currently available about him for the Supreme at Cheltenham in March)

5 times winning trainer, N. Henderson, will be hoping to make it 6 with his contender, Son Of Camas. The son of Miler, Creachadoir, has only run 3 times, and was  sent off the 2/1 favourite for a valuable Punchestown Bumper on the first of them last April  where he finished last of the 19 runners. However, he has won both his starts since, a Newbury NHF race in November, and 3 weeks later a Maiden Hurdle in workmanlike fashion at the same venue. Saturday represents a serious step up in class, but Son Of Camas must have been showing plenty at Seven Barrows before that valuable Punchestown heat, and it won’t be the biggest surprise if he rises to the occasion.

The Fergal O’Brien trained Silver Hallmark won an Irish PTP in fine style 13 months ago, and in his first race under rules (2m1/2f NHF Newbury March 2) finished 7L behind the Paul Nicholls trained, triple NHF flat race winner, Mc Fabulous, but in his next race, 249 days later, making his hurdling debut, he beat the Nicholls horse by 4L in a Chepstow Maiden. The runner up hasn’t exactly advertised the form, (last of 4 beaten 15L in an Ascot Grade2 next time) but Silver Hallmark remains an animal of some potential.

Selection.        : Hang In There
Danger             : Son Of Camas

John Gray

Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade3) 3m 6 1/2f Chepstow Friday

welsh national chepstowFirst run in 1895, it moved to Chepstow in 1949 where it’s inaugural running was won by  the 10yo Fighting Line, ridden by Dick Francis, better known for being aboard the Queen Mother’s Devon Loch in that inexplicable incident in the 1956 Grand National, when seeming to have the race at his mercy, and for his subsequent career as a crime writer. There have been plenty more 10yo’s in the winners enclosure over the decades, but no particular generation has dominated, and winners have come from all age groups between 6 and 12. Weight, not surprisingly, has had it’s say, and only 2 animals have carried more than 11-7 to victory since Carvill’s Hill won in 1991. In a contest not far short of 4 miles, run over Chepstow’s galloping track, usually on testing ground, bottomless reserves of stamina are essential, and the 4 winners of the Chepstow marathon, who went on to land The Cheltenham Gold Cup, Burrough Hill Lad, Master Oats, Synchronised and most recently Native River, had it in spades. Last year’s winner Elegant Escape, is obviously well endowed in this department, and will be attempting to become only the 2nd horse to win the race in consecutive years, (Bonanza Boy 1988 1989) and indeed, give the excellent Colin Tizzard his 3rd victory in 4 years, (Native River 2016).

It was a pretty impressive effort by Elegant Escape last year, as not only was he one of only four six year olds to have ever won the race, but he was also only the second to shoulder more than 11-7 since Carvill’s Hill’s win 28 years ago. Racing off a mark of 151, he took it up two out, and ran on strongly to win by 1 1/4L and 4L from Ramses De Teillee and Saturday’s opponent Yala Enki. He ran well again a month later when going down by 3/4L to Frodon but was then well beaten in the Gold Cup and Aintree’s Betway Bowl Chase. He has made a promising start to this season finishing 2nd in The Charlie Hall at Wetherby, and 3rd in Newbury’s Ladbrokes Trophy Chase off a mark of 160. The Handicapper has left him on the same mark, leaving him with top weight of 11-12 to carry on Friday, 9 lbs higher than last year it is a big ask for the tough 7yo, but he is a year older, and one feels that this has been his target for some time.

Last year’s 3rd, Yala Enki, following wind surgery in August, moved from Venetia Williams to the Ditcheat yard of Paul Nicholls. He showed up well in the Ladbroke until the 17th for his new yard, before dropping away, and there is no way of knowing if the wind surgery has been a success, but he meets Elegant Escape on 9lbs better for that 5 1/2L beating, stays really well, and loves heavy ground.

Mr Nicholls who has won the race twice before is also represented by the 7yo Truckers Lodge, and his form figures at the track read an impressive 11241. He has only raced 3 times over fences, winning once, but that was here at Chepstow last time (29 Oct) when taking a beginners chase in workmanlike fashion. His stamina credentials were certainly on display when easily winning a handicap hurdle in very deep ground over the course last December, and his pedigree, by the strong stayer Westerner, out of an Accordion mare who won twice between the flags on heavy, would certainly suggest that staying should be his game. He is to be ridden by the useful 3lbs claimer, Lorcan Williams, and with just 10-2 on his back could be a serious blot on the Handicap.

welshgrandnationalThe Christian Williams trained 9yo, Potters Corner, also has a pretty impressive course record. He has won 3 of his 4 starts at the track, including last time, when winning a 3 miles Hurdle on Soft, under a great ride from the excellent 7lbs claimer Jack Tudor, 20 days ago. He showed what an out and out stayer he is when winning Uttoxeter’s Midland Grand National (4m 2f Heavy) on truly attritional ground last March, and presumably, with one eye on the Handicapper has been campaigned over the smaller obstacles since. If Tudor is on board again he will have only 10-2 to carry, and will be one of the best equipped to cope if conditions are seriously testing.

The Philip Hobbs trained Steely Addition has won 2 of his 5 chases, including a win over the course, (3m Heavy) last December. The Handicapper took quite a harsh view putting him up 13lbs but despite a convincing victory at Hereford in March he has relented a little and the son of Craigsteel races on Friday off a mark of 147 giving him a racing weight of 10-13. Never having raced beyond 3m1f there are obvious questions about his stamina, but the 7yo is stoutly bred, and it’s worth remembering Phillip’s excellent record at Chepstow.

The Lucinda Russell trained Big River is prone to making the odd mistake but it wasn’t his fault when unluckily brought down in The Scottish Borders National at Kelso 19 days ago. Travelling smoothly the Scottish trained 9 yo came to grief at the 14th following the fall of the favourite, Caventara, but I suppose every cloud has a silver lining and he is able to race on Saturday off the same mark, giving him a racing weight of 10-3. Given a clear round he could become the first winner from across the border since Peaty Sandy took the trophy back to Scotland in 1981.

The Dan Skelton trained Benny’s King had never travelled further when taking
a 2m 6 1/2f Class2 Newbury Handicap 28 days ago, but the manner of his victory strongly suggested there might be more to come over further, and if turning up
(Also engaged Wetherby Thursday) this stoutly bred 8yo could be interesting.

Selection.   : Truckers Lodge

EW.              : Steely Addition

Betway Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase 3m1 1/2f Haydock Saturday

tommy whittle handicap

We’re keen on Sue Smith’s chances with Vintage Clouds

Following it’s inception in 1982, 3 winners of the previous year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, Little Owl 1981, Forgive ‘n Forget 1985, and The Thinker 1987, have won Saturday’s feature, underlining what an important heat it was in the racing calendar, but since its loss of Graded status in 2004, it is now run as a Class2 Handicap, and the prospect of any future Gold Cup Hero again appearing on the Tommy Whittle roll of honour, seems
pretty remote. However, this is always a very competitive heat that demands a tough, talented sort to succeed, particularly as this year’s  contenders will have a further
2 1/2f to travel, and one that can certainly boast those requirements in spades, is last year’s winner, Daklondike.

Trained by David Pipe, (also trained the 2014 winner, Broadway Buffalo) Daklondike, was a length down jumping the last, but kept on resolutely to outstay the Twiston-Davies trained Ballyarthur and win going away by a length. A comfortable winner over 3m2f on heavy ground at Newbury, the son of Gold Well is only 6lbs higher this year and should find the extra 2 1/2f of this year’s Tommy Whittle right up his street.
Only 7, Daklondike is a half brother to the multi talented Great Endeavour, also trained by David, and with the yard in such great form looks to have serious prospects of becoming the third animal to land the prize for a second time, and indeed bring the prize back to Nicholashayne for a 4th time, (David’s Dad, Martin won with Chatham in1994)

the hollow ginge

Master handler Twiston-Davies saddles The Hollow Ginge

Nigel Twiston-Davies will be hoping that he can go one better than last year with his 6yo, The Hollow Ginge. Short on chasing experience, he has won one of his 3 starts over fences but put in his best effort in his penultimate race, an Aintree Class3 Novices Handicap Chase over 3m1f on soft at the end of October. Having coped well with the stiff Fences on the Mildmay course, he came to the last 3L in arrears but ran on to such effect that he made up the deficit and was only beaten a head, when the winner, the progressive Irish trained, 135 rated, Plan of Attack, who was receiving 5lbs found extra in the shadow of the post. The son of Oscar probably found the 2m5 1/2f trip on Gd/Sft at Haydock 4 weeks ago on the sharp side, and he could only finish a 14L 3rd, but back up in trip, on the likely heavy ground which he handles so well, (won a 2m7f Haydock Hurdle on Heavy) The Hollow Ginge might just Land the Naunton handler his first Tommy Whittle.

The small Oxfordshire yard of Owner/Trainer, Andrew Martin doesn’t have many winners, but if Stable Star, Militarian, turns out on Saturday, (also engaged Ascot) he has to be of interest. A winner of 4 of his 14 starts over fences, he surprised many better fancied opponents at Ascot 29 days ago when jumping from fence to fence he coasted home 4L clear of his rivals at the tasty odds of 50/1. He races on Saturday off a 6lbs higher mark, (144) which looks fair and is usually ridden by the 7lbs claiming amateur James Martin. He has won on soft but heavy would be a concern, as neither he nor his 158 rated half brother, Hell’s Kitchen have raced on it.

The Sue Smith trained Vintage Clouds doesn’t win very often, (2/20 over fences) but is a thoroughly genuine type, and the Trevor Hemmings owned 9yo has rarely run badly in his 9 Haydock appearances, (has won a Chase over Saturday’s course and distance, and won the 2016 running of the 2m7f Grade2 Prestige Hurdle on heavy). All ground comes alike to the 9yo, and he stays well beyond Saturday’s trip. He is only 2lbs higher than his last winning mark, and Sue won the race in 2004 so knows what is required. If Saturday’s heat turns into a slog in the mud, Vintage Clouds could be the best equipped to deal with such conditions.

The ex French trained 6yo, Lord Du Mesnil, failed to hit the back of the net in his 9 races in his native France, and hasn’t fared much better since joining the Gloucestershire yard of Richard Hobson, registering a single victory from 15 starts. However that win came in his last race, a 3m Class3 Handicap on heavy ground at Newcastle 3 weeks ago where despite being headed, and making a mistake at the 2nd last, he rallied, and showed plenty of courage to get back up. It will require further improvement to win off a 5 lbs higher mark on Saturday, and connections, looking at the exploits of his 2 years younger full brother, Happy Monarch, who has won both his starts over fences, the last time a Listed Chase at top track, Auteuil, will be hoping that there is still some undiscovered improvement to come from their hitherto not so successful, son of Saints Des Saints.

The Herefordshire yard of Venetia Williams is going great guns at the moment and her lightly raced 8yo contender, Yalltari could be well handicapped. He has only raced 9 times, winning 3 of his 5 starts over hurdles, and one of his 4 starts over fences, a 3m Chepstow Novices Chase off a mark of 137 last December. Sent off the 11/8fav for his next race, at Exeter in January, he came a cropper at the first, and then in his last race, the Grade2 Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot in February, he looked a serious threat until a mistake at the last put an end to his challenge. However, he stayed on for 3rd, 4 3/4L behind the winner Mister Malarky on the Gd/Sft ground. The winner that day is now on a mark of 148, which I suppose makes Yalltari‘s mark of 145 look just about fair. Venetia has few competitors when it comes to having an animal at it’s peak after a break, and with his liking for testing conditions, Yalltari is one to be interested in.

Selection.        : Vintage Clouds

EW.                   : The Hollow Ginge

John Gray

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade3) 2m4 1/2f (New Course) Cheltenham Saturday

caspian caviar gold cup

Venetia Williams has high hopes with last year’s runner-up Cepage

First run in 1963 as The Massey Ferguson Gold Cup, Saturday’s contest has been won by some of the greats of the Winter Game including the mighty Flyingbolt, (some good judges rated him better than his illustrious stable mate, the immortal Arkle) who carried an eye watering 12-6 to a 15L victory in 1965, and the Fred Winter trained Pendil who won carrying the mega weight of 12-7 in 1973. Happily, horses no longer have to carry such welter weights, but 3 winners in the last decade have done so with 11-7 or more in the Plate, and last year’s Hero, Frodon, carried 11-12. Course form is particularly relevant, as the last animal to win on his Prestbury Park debut, was Kings Fountain 28 years ago, as is age, as we have to go back to Fragrant Dawn’s victory in 1993 to find a winner older than eight. The stand out statistic in the contest though,  has to be the record of runners trained by Paul Nicholls, who have won 5 of the last 10 renewals, and the Master of Ditcheat again seems to hold a strong hand with his two contenders this year, Secret Investor, and Brelan D’As.

The former, a 7yo son of Kayf Tara, has won 2 of his 6 starts over fences, including a Grade2 at Ayr last April, and looks progressive. He made a satisfactory reappearance in another Grade2, 6 weeks ago, when finishing a 14L second at Down Royal following a 203 days break, and can be expected to have come on for the run. On a mark of 150  giving him 11-7 to carry on Saturday, he looks fairly treated, and my only concern would be that this will be his first run at Prestbury Park.

Stable companion, the 8yo, Brelan D’As on the other hand will be appearing at the track for the 7th time, and while he has yet to score at the course, ran his best race ever when finishing a brave 2nd in last months Bet Victor Gold Cup. It was only by a diminishing neck that he failed to reel in the winner, Happy Diva in an epic battle up the Cheltenham hill. A French bred son of Crillon, he looked well suited by racing back at 2m4f in The Bet Victor (Old Course) where he ran on so resolutely, (his 4 previous runs had been over 2miles) and might well find the more galloping nature of the new course on Saturday even more to his liking. Despite a 5lbs rise his mark of 143 looks fair, giving him a racing weight of 11-0.

Venetia Williams won with Niceonefrankie 5 years ago, and will be hoping that last year’s runner up, the 7yo, Cepage, can go one better this time. The son of Saddler Maker was retired for the season following that excellent effort, and following a 329 days break, made a very satisfactory reappearance 5 weeks ago, when giving Saturday’s opponent and current favourite, Riders Onthe Storm, plenty to think about. In a Class2 Aintree Handicap, he was only beaten 1 3/4L by the Twiston-Davies runner and meets him on 5lbs better terms on Saturday. With the run under his belt, and obviously well suited by Saturday’s track it should be close between them.

It is only since joining The Twiston-Davies Academy in November that Riders Onthe Storm has shown what a talented individual he is with that impressive Aintree victory. His record of 1/5 over fences when trained by Tom Taaffe was hardly impressive, and he had either fallen or was pulled up in his 2 previous races. However they have obviously found the key to him at Naunton, and that was a near faultless round over the stiff Mildmay fences. My only concern would be the Handicappers reaction of raising him a very severe looking 13 lbs.

The Dan Skelton trained 6yo, Not That Fuisse, a decent hurdler, has only raced 3 times over fences, finishing 2nd twice. He was runner up in a 2m Novices here at Cheltenham in October, but his best effort was over 2m4f when finishing a close 2nd on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter the same month. Giving 5lbs to the 137 rated, Eric The Red, he was only beaten a length, and the Handicapper seems to have been quite lenient leaving him on 131 for this his handicap debut. He needs a few above him to come out but if getting into the race could be interesting.

Winning three chases off the reel,  including a Grade2 in late 2017, the future looked bright for the Gary Moore trained Benatar, and he did indeed perform well in his first race of 2018, the Grade1 JLT Novices Chase at The Cheltenham Festival, finishing 3rd despite being found to be lame in his off hind. However the wheels have come off in his 4 subsequent races, the last time at Ascot in January. Nevertheless Benatar can go well after a break, and Gary Is a past master at reviving a horse’s fortunes so it’s definitely too early to write off this son of the outstanding National Hunt stallion, Beneficial.

Following a 231 day break and wind surgery, the Warren Greatrex trained 8yo Keeper Hill ran his best race for a long time when winning a valuable Haydock Handicap off a mark of 146 three weeks ago, a career best. He beat the runner up, the 155 rated Midnight Shadow in a sustained duel by 1/2L giving him 11lbs and may only now be fulfilling the promise he showed when winning a Doncaster Grade2 two years ago.

Selection  : Cepage

EW.            : Brelan D’As.  Benatar

John Gray

Virgin Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Grand National Course) 2miles5f Aintree

grandseftonhandicapFew names resonate more loudly than Carberry around the historic Aintree track. The legendary Irish Jockey, Tommy Carberry (pictured) rode the winner of The Grand National, L’Escargot, in 1975 and then went on to train the 1999 winner, Bobbyjo, ridden by his son Paul. Daughter Nina has also left her mark on the track, competing in six Grand Nationals and winning the Aintree Foxhunters in 2015. All in all it is a superb family record, and Nina’s sister in law, Louisa Carberry, will be hoping to add a further embellishment to the family’s achievements, when her mare, It’s Jennifer, lines up for The Grand Sefton on Saturday.

A 7yo daughter of Martaline, she is trained in France by Louisa, (married to Philip Carberry) and while her win record over fences of 1/11 is hardly inspiring, she looked  an improved animal last time (Auteuil 2m7f VSft Oct 19) when finishing a close 2nd in a valuable Grade3 Handicap. She is a sound jumper, her only blip coming 31 months ago, and Louisa reports the mare to have schooled well over some Aintree like fences at home. She looks well treated on Saturday’s mark of 130, giving her a lovely racing weight of 10-2, and it will come as no surprise if she adds yet another chapter to the Carberry’s amazing Aintree story.

Nigel Twiston-Davies won with the 10yo, Little Josh 7 years ago and will be hoping that his current market leader, Flying Angel, can Land a 2nd win for his Naunton yard. The 8yo has won 4 of his 21 starts over fences and was quite impressive last time,
(Ascot 2m5f Soft Nov22) winning the Class2 Handicap by 8L off a mark of 140. He doesn’t look badly treated off a 6lbs higher mark on Saturday, (has been rated as high as 157 in the past) and has run well enough in his two forays over the National fences, finishing 10/27 despite losing a shoe in the 2018 Topham Trophy, and 6/27 in this year’s renewal of the same heat. Back over the same course and distance it could be a case of third time lucky.

Paul Nicholls, with 3 wins has the outstanding record in the race, and when his sole entry, Touch Kick, is owned by Mr Trevor “Aintree” Hemmings, it’s time to take notice. Trevor has won the Grand National an astonishing 3 times, and himself and Paul combined to win Saturday’s heat with the 9yo, Warriors Tale last year. The year younger, Touch Kick, has won 4 of his 10 starts over fences, and put up his best performance to date last time, winning a Fakenham Class3 Handicap (3m Good Oct 18) by 7L off a mark of 132, following a 195 day break. A 7 lbs rise to 139 for Saturday makes things a little trickier, but it’s worth noting that his full brother, Slate House, is currently rated on 153 and we may not yet have seen the best of this sound jumper.

Nicky Henderson has yet to land a Grand Sefton, but looks to hold quite a strong hand this year with the 9yo Gold Present, and the 7yo Casablanca Mix. The former was sent off a 12/1 chance for the 2017 renewal of The Topham Trophy over Saturday’s course and distance, and jumped well until coming to grief at the 12th, (The Canal Turn). He went on to win his next 2 races, including a victory over the talented Frodon,
(Ascot 3m Gs Dec 2017) but has disappointed in his 6 starts since. He hasn’t been seen since April but is an animal who can go well fresh, and there has been plenty of interest in him in the markets. They certainly know the time of day at Seven Barrows, and if they have the son of Presenting in the same form as when beating Frodon in that Ascot heat, he will be a danger to all.

Stable companion, Casablanca Mix, has won 3 of his 10 starts, including the last 2 and looked a much improved performer when landing Market Rasen’s Summer Plate last time out off a mark of 143. He has been put up a severe looking 11 lbs for Saturday’s race, giving him the unenviable task of having to carry top weight of 11-12 over the big fences on Saturday, but that said, he is a well bred animal (half brother to the multiple French winner, Vanilla Crush, who to date has banked more than £350,000 and the 3 times winning Arkwrisht), and if turning out is worth considering.

The ex Irish 10yo Killaro Bay’s form figures read, 1/2/2 since joining the Worcestershire yard of Henry Oliver last May, and his last run, 6 weeks ago, was probably his best, finishing 2nd to Burtons Well over 3 miles on The Mildmay Course, here at Aintree, following a 119 days break. A sound jumper, he is the type of older chaser who often adapts well to the big fences, and down in trip, off the same mark, could be interesting.

With form figures of 1/2/1 over Saturday’s course and distance the claims of Colin Tizzard’s 11yo Ultragold, are hard to ignore. The veteran has been unsighted in his 6 starts since winning the Topham in April 2018, but perhaps the Merseyside air can spark a revival.

Selection.  : It’s Jennifer

EW.            : Gold Present.  Killaro Bay

John Gray