Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe 1mile 4furlongs Longchamp

waldgeist arc

Waldgeist represents cracking value at his current odds of 12-1

The big question facing racing fans on Sunday is whether Khalid Abdullah’s fabulous mare can enable, (forgive the pun) his owner to become the winning most in the 99 years of Europe’s premier contest. With 6 victories he currently shares that distinction with the legendary Marcel Boussac, and on all known form it is rather difficult to envisage Enable failing to deliver the goods on Sunday. If she does, she will be carving her own niche in the history books, as the first to win the great race 3 times, and will be giving Jockey, Frankie Dettori a seventh success, and trainer, Gosden a fourth. Having won the last 2 renewals, and achieving the fantastic record of winning all 10 of her races at the top level, it can be argued that her current odds of 8/11 still represent some value, but I’m not so sure. Last year’s win at Longchamp was her only appearance at The Paris track, (the 2017 renewal was run at Chantilly) and despite having the best of the draw in stall 6 she only got home by a short neck from Sea Of Class, drawn out in 15. Her first 2 wins this year were hard fought, particularly that epic struggle against Crystal Ocean in the King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and while her win in The Yorkshire Oaks 46 days ago was more comfortable, it’s worth remembering that plenty of “good things” have met their Waterloo on the Paris track.

obrien investec

The Master of Ballydoyle will be hopeful of Japan’s chances and so are we

It has been a good race for improving 3yo’s, (have won 6 of the last 10 renewals) and the Aidan O’Brien trained Japan, certainly falls into that category. Ignored in the market for the Derby, he started a 20/1 shot, but belying his odds finished best of all and despite pilot, Wayne Lordan, dropping his “persuader” was only beaten 1/2L in 3rd. It has been a case of upwards and onwards since, and he is unbeaten in his last 3 races.  I felt he was particularly impressive last time over an inadequate 10 1/2f in York’s
Juddmonte International, where, headed inside the last 50 yards by the hot favourite,
Crystal Ocean, (rated 127) he battled back heroically to get up on the line. By the great Galileo out of the Danehill mare Shastye, (won over 13f) he has won over Sunday’s course and distance, (Group1 Grand Prix De Paris in July) is improving at a rate of knots and looks great value at his current odds of 6/1.

Another 3yo taking serious steps forward is the Pau based handler, J-C Rouget’s Sottsass. By the very successful sire, Siyouni, (stud fee €100,000) he kept on strongly to win the 10f Group1 Prix Du Jockey Club, (French Derby) at the beginning of June and stepped up to 12f, readily won the good Arc trial, The Prix Neil, over course and distance 3 weeks ago. In a heat run in a time 3 seconds faster than standard, he overcame difficulties in running to win comfortably. He is out of the Galileo mare, Starlets Sister, which makes him a half brother to the top American mare, Sistercharlie, who has won 6 Grade1 events, and it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise if the winners share of Sunday’s €5,000,000 pot were to end up down in the lovely Pyrenean town of Pau.

Godolphin have won the race twice, and trainer, Charlie Appleby will be hoping to make it three with the lightly raced 4yo, Ghaiyyath. A winner of 5 of his seven starts, he struck at the top level for the first time when landing Germany’s Group1 Grosser Preis Von Baden in Spectacular fashion 36 days ago. Tackling 12f for the first time, he took it up 3f out, went clear, and won by an impressive 14L. With a 19/1 shot finishing second the form is difficult to weigh up but the Group1 winning favourite, Laccario, was a further 4 1/2L back in 3rd. Beautifully bred, he is by the exceptional, Dubawi, out of the 2006 winner of The Irish 1000gns, Nightime, which makes him a half brother to the top class mare, Zhukova, and I’m sure there is plenty more to come from the Godolphin colt.

With 7 wins, French genius, Andre Fabre, is by some distance the most successful handler in the race, and his 5yo, Waldgeist, who finished 4th last year, is no forlorn hope. A real Longchamp specialist, he has won 4 of his 6 starts at the track, and perhaps even more significantly, the only time he was beaten in his 4 heats when racing over 12f at the course, was when finishing 4th in last year’s Arc. Badly drawn in 13, he was held up at the back of midfield where he met plenty of trouble and couldn’t get a clear run. When he did get out, the bird had flown, but the son of Galileo is a real pro, and he stayed on strongly to finish 4th, 1 3/4L behind Enable. He looked in great form when winning the Prix Foy over course and distance 3 weeks ago under a hands and heels ride, and current odds of 16/1 look generous.

Selection.      : Japan

EW.                 : Waldgeist

John Gray

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