Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (sponsored by Qipco) Group1 1mile straight Ascot Saturday

quipco stakes ascotAidan O’Brien with four successes, just shades the training honours by one from John Gosden, but the French, with two victories in the last four years, have to be taken seriously and the contender from across “La Manche” this year, Recoletos, has plenty to recommend him.

A 4yo son of the 3 times Group1 winning sire, Whipper, he has won 7 of his 13 starts, 4 times over 10f+, but significantly, his two top level successes, have come since being dropped in trip. A well beaten 4th in last year’s 10f Qipco Champion Stakes, he made a successful start to this year’s campaign when winning an 8f Group2 at Saint Cloud, and then made his top level breakthrough when comfortably winning the 9f Group1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp in May.

quipcostakesrecoletos

Recoletos has a terrific chance this weekend

 

Edgy and sweating before the start of The Queen Anne Stakes at The Royal Meeting in June, he failed to fire on the fast ground, finishing 7/15 but following a 54 day break, he was an excellent 2nd to Jessica Harrington’s brilliant filly, Alpha Centauri, (rec 10lbs) in the Group1 Prix Jacques Le Maroit at Deauville on Good/Soft ground. He was 2 1/2L behind the Harrington filly, but had Freddy Heads Group1 winning colt, With You, 3 1/2L back in 3rd. Sent off the 23/10 Fav for Longchamp’s Group1, 8f Prix Du Moulin 6 week’s ago he put up a career best performance, getting up in a driving finish to beat Windcharmer a Head with Sir Michael Stoute’s Sussex Stakes runner up, Expert Eye, 1 1/4L back in 3rd. The Michel Laffon-Parias trained 4yo is clearly on the up, and with his proven ability to handle soft ground deserves his position near the top of Saturday’s market.

It is a little surprising to see John Gosden’s brilliant 3yo, Roaring Lion, (also engaged in the 10f Qipco Champion Stakes on the same card) reverting to a mile as he has certainly shown his best form over further, (won his last 3 races, all Group1s at 10f) but he did win last year’s Group2 Royal Lodge over Newmarket’s straight Rowley Mile on easy ground, so with similar conditions in prospect on Saturday, Master Trainer Gosden probably feels that a strongly run race over the trip will suit.

The ex handicapper, Addeybb, has won five of his eight starts, and looked a serious animal when stepped up to Group Class for the first time last April. Sent off the 6/4 Fav for the Group2 bet365 Mile at Sandown on Good/Soft ground, the son of Pivotal traveled well throughout the heat, took it up at the furlong marker, and went clear to win in impressive fashion by 2 3/4L from that good yardstick, the now 114 rated, Stormy Antarctic. With the 116 rated, Here Comes When, 6 1/2L back in 5th, this was a really top notch performance, so his poor showing three weeks later in Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes (8/14 9 3/4L behind Rhododendron) must have come as a great disappointment to connections. He hasn’t been seen since but if Willie Haggis (stable going well at the moment) has the 4yo gelding, who handles soft ground well back to his best he will be a danger to all.

Horse Racing - 2013 Dante Festival - Betfred Dante Stakes Day - York RacecourseThe Karl Burke (pictured) trained filly, Laurens, never wins by far, but that hasn’t stopped her winning an amazing 5 Group1s and so it was again a fortnight ago when she won the Group1, Sun Chariot Stakes by a Head from Saturday’s opponent Happily. This terrific 3yo who has banked nearly £1.5million for connections has been supplemented for Saturday’s race and if reproducing the form that saw her beat that other outstanding filly, Alpha Centauri in Leopardstown’s Matron Stakes, she would be hard to beat. A word of caution though, the Harrington filly was found to be clinically abnormal after that Leopardstown heat.

The Andrew Balding trained 4yo gelding, Beat The Bank, has yet to win at the top level, but connections must have felt it was only a matter of time following a scintillating performance in last year’s Group2 Joel Stakes at Headquarters on Good/Soft ground, where he won by 5L from Sir John Lavery, and had the 114 rated Soverign Debt 8 1/2L back in 4th. However he was well beaten in last year’s renewal, finishing 11 1/2L behind Persuasive, but this term, he got back on track when finishing a slightly unlucky 6th, 1 3/4L behind the winner, Accidental Agent in The Queen Anne, and then winning an Ascot Group2, (round course) in July. His win in the Group2 Celebration Mile 8 week’s ago was another excellent effort and he has had a nice break since, which should leave him one of the freshest in Saturday’s race.

Selection : Recoletos
E.W.          : Beat The Bank

The Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch Handicap 2m2f Newmarket Tips

cesarawitchWhile last year saw the welcome return of the market leader getting his head in front, it has been a poor contest for favourites, Withhold, (Oddsguru’s selection) being only the third Jolly to collect since the great Vintage Crop prevailed in 1992, and in the past decade we have seen winners returned at 66/1, two at 50/1, and another at 25/1 so don’t be put off by a long price. The race uniquely is run over 2 counties, (starts in Cambridgeshire and finishes in Suffolk) and has only the one slight change of direction, a gentle turn around the 10f marker, giving the 35 runners a nearly straight 2m2f to contend with. Always run at a furious gallop from flag fall, stamina is at a huge premium, so contenders without very solid staying credentials are best ignored. Irish yards, with just 2 wins in the last 50 year’s have a very poor record, but Willie Mullins, (3rd last year with Lagos To Vegas) is mob handed at the time of writing, and he’s making a determined effort this term to improve the Celtic record. He trains the  current market leader, Stratum, and this son of Dansili certainly shouldn’t fail on the stamina front.

A 5yo gelding, he is out of the stoutly bred Galileo mare, Lunar Place, and demonstrated his ample stamina credentials in this year’s 2 1/2m Ascot Stakes, keeping on strongly for 3rd place, 2 1/4L behind the winner, stablemate, Lagos To Vegas. He followed up with a comfortable Newbury victory in the 2m1/2f JLT Cup in July, and was then sent off favourite for the 1m6f Ebor Handicap at York last time where he looked unlucky. Held up in the rear by pilot Robert Winston, he was left with an awful lot to do, but still looked a real danger, impressively weaving his way through the field only to be badly hampered 1 1/2f out where he lost all chance. He should be well suited by the step back up in trip and looks fairly treated on his York mark of 102.

williemullinsConnections of the second Mullins runner, the 7yo mare, Limini, have had to be very patient as she was off the course for 503 days prior to making her comeback in a 2m1f Handicap for Qualified Riders at Galway in July, where she finished a commendable 2nd. Bought from France by the Ricci’s in May 2015 she was campaigned exclusively over hurdles in 2016 and 2017, with considerable success, winning three of her 7 starts, including a Cheltenham Festival victory over 2m1f in 2016, and she looked a tad unlucky the following year, again at Cheltenham, when beaten 1 1/2L by the top class Apple Jade over 2m4f, where presumably she sustained that injury that kept her off the racecourse for 503 days. She started a 5/1 shot for the very valuable Petingo Handicap at Leopardstown over 13f, 4 week’s ago, and under a super ride from Saturday’s pilot, Oisin Murphy, led at the furlong marker, and kept on strongly to hold her stable companion, Law Girl, by a head. Racing off the same mark on Saturday, and with Murphy again doing the steering, she has plenty to recommend her.

Ian Williams who trained last year’s ill fated runner up, London Prize, (Oddsguru’s E.W. selection) produced his 7yo, Stars Over The Sea, to win the trial for Saturday’s contest over course and distance by 10L three weeks ago. However he was allowed his own way out front and the time was slow so may struggle with another 8lbs on his back.

The Neil Mulholland trained Vis A Vis looked well suited by the step up in trip when winning a 2mile handicap on the Kempton AW last time (Aug 8) and had previously won a Class4, 14f Sandown Handicap, 53 days earlier on his debut for the stable. By the strong influence for stamina, Dansili, out of the Rainbow Quest mare, Pretty Face his pedigree is all about stamina and could be very well suited by Saturday’s trip. Neil has secured the services of last year’s winning rider, Silvestre de Sousa and looks fairly treated on his mark of 90.

The Aidan O’Brien trained 3yo, Southern France would be only the third 3yo to prevail in the last two decades, but that said, you don’t get many horses from the Classic generation, with the class to finish 3rd in a St Leger competing in The Cesarewitch, and as a son of Galileo, sire of the Ascot Gold Cup winner, Order Of St George and plenty of other staying types, it wouldn’t surprise to see the Ballydoyle colt play a leading role on Saturday.

The Ralph Beckett trained 4yo, Here and Now has won 3 of his 12 starts and was quite impressive in his penultimate race, the valuable Sky Bet Handicap over 2m1/2f at York in August. He stayed on strongly to beat the useful, Davy’s Dilemma by 5L off a mark of 91. Dropped back to 1m6f in a Chester Listed contest 6 week’s ago, he was slow coming out of the gate and never got into a challenging position, but did stay on well and was only 1 3/4L adrift of the winner, Duretto at the line. Well bred, Here And Now is By Dansili out of the top class Hernando mare, Look Here, ( won The Oaks in 2008, 3rd St Leger 2008, Btn Shd when 3rd Coronation Cup 2009) so on breeding should find Saturday’s trip right up his street, and only 4lbs higher than York looks good value at current odds of 20/1.

Selection  : Vis A Vis
EW.            :  Here And Now. (If abs. Stratum)

John Gray

Qatar Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe 1m4f Longchamp preview

arctriomphe

Dancing Brave swoops to the victory of all victories in 86 under Pat Eddery

Worth £2,528,319. to the winner, the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe is the most valuable race on turf run anywhere on the planet, and the most successful trainer, by a country mile, in this fantastic contest, is the French Maestro, Andre Fabre. With seven victories to his credit, he is four clear of his nearest pursuer, Aidan O’Brien, and represented this time by the upwardly mobile, 4yo, Waldgeist, and the talented 5yo Talismanic, has to have decent prospects of landing an eighth.

Waldgeist, a son of the great stallion, Galileo, has won 6 of his 13 starts but, it was only two outings ago, at the beginning of July, that he struck at the highest level.

WaldgeistGuru

The Oddsguru fancies Waldgeist to make a bold charge this weekend

 

Sent off the 4/5 favourite for the Group1 Grand Prix de St Cloud (1m4f Gd-Sft) he only got the better of the Gosden filly, Coronet, in the shadow of the post, but 77 days later was much more impressive when easily beating stable companion, Talismanic by 2 1/2L, over Saturday’s course and distance in the good “Arc” Trial, The Prix Foy, and to give further weight to the form, he had last year’s St Leger winner, Capri, a further 4L back in 5th. Talismanic, having won last year’s Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar, and finished 2nd to the excellent Highland Reel in The Group1 Hong Kong Vase, is no slouch, so this looks a serious step up by the Fabre 4yo. He is out of the Monsanto mare Walderche, who was a Group3 winner on soft and won on heavy, so the weekend forecast for rain in the Paris region shouldn’t present any problems.

Since it’s inception nearly 100 years ago 7 horses have managed to win the great race a second time, but in the last 60 renewals, only two have managed the double, Alleged in 1978, and the fantastic filly Treve 4 years ago, which helps to put into some perspective, the challenge facing John Gosden’s super filly, Enable, on Sunday.

longchampboisdeboulogne

The great race returns to its rightful place in the Bois de Boulogne this year

The injury she sustained to her knee last May and kept her off the course for 342 days, can’t have helped her cause either, but that said, she was pretty impressive when making her belated reappearance on the Kempton AW (1m4f) 29 days ago. In a 4 runner affair, she made all, and running on strongly, easily got the better of the King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes runner up, Crystal Ocean, (gave 8lbs). This
5 times Group1 winner, including last year’s renewal at Chantilly, (has never run at Longchamp) deserves her position at the top of the market, and if successful, would give Mr Gosden a third winner in the race, and enable (forgive the pun) her owner, Prince Khalid Abdullah, to equal the longstanding record held by Marcel Boussac since 1949 of 6 victories in the contest. However her current odds, in a heat with it’s fair share of hard luck stories, look decidedly skinny.

Unraced as a 2yo, the Willie Haggas trained filly, Sea Of Class, has done nothing but improve in her 4 races since making her debut in a 1mile Maiden at Headquarters in April. Showing her inexperience, the 3yo was beaten a neck in that Newmarket heat, but stepped up in trip, this stoutly bred filly, (by Sea The Stars, who was runner up in the 2009 Arc, out of the Hernando mare, Holy Moon) has remained unbeaten in her subsequent 4 races, and was particularly impressive the last twice, winning the Irish Oaks under a hands and heels ride from the Epsom Oaks Victor, Forever Together, and 5 week’s ago running away with The Group1 Yorkshire Equivalent. Held up at the back at York, she made smooth progress at the 2f marker, led inside the final furlong, and left the Gosden trained Coronet, trailing in her wake. The 2 1/4L margin of her victory could easily have been considerably more, and she had the useful Irish filly, Eziyra, (won a Curragh Group2 easily next time out) a further 1L back in 3rd. She has never run on anything worse than good but her dam was a winner on heavy, and her three most successful siblings, Charity Line, Final Score and Thierry Collect, all thrived on plenty of give, so the forecast for rain isn’t a worry, and indeed, if it does come up soft on Sunday, it may enhance her prospects.

We have to rewind 60 years to 1958 to find the last winner of the St Leger to win
“The Arc” when the great Ballymoss prevailed for Vincent O’Brien, and while Nijinsky was an unlucky loser in 1970, and many think that Alleged should have won The St Leger in 1977 prior to his “Arc” success, none of the above, speaks terribly strongly in favour of the chances of this year’s Doncaster Hero, Kew Gardens. However on the plus side, he won The Group1 Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance in July, in a time nearly 2 seconds faster than standard, and there was no fluke about his win over the talented Iah Ti Dar in the St Leger.

Roger Varian’s old boss, the sadly deceased, Michael Jarvis, won with the unconsidered, Carroll House in 1989, and Roger will be hoping for a similar outcome with his 50/1 shot Defoe. The son of Dalakhani won the Group2 Jockey Club Stakes at Headquarters in May and following a 98 days break the 4yo put up a career best performance last time, going down by a neck to Best Solution in Germany’s Top all aged contest, The Group1 Grosser Preis Von Baden, a contest incidentally, the above mentioned Carroll House won in 1988. Clearly progressing nicely, Defoe stays well, and could play a prominent role at the weekend.

Selection : Waldgeist
E.W.          Kew Gardens