Betting Tips Betway Lincoln Handicap

Betting Tips Betway Lincoln Handicap
Betway Lincoln Handicap 1m Str Doncaster Saturday
– Both our selections in last week’s Mares Novices Hurdle Finale Handicap ran with credit. Our E.W. selection Copper Kay finished an honourable second, and our first choice, Tara View ran on strongly to claim fourth place in the sixteen runner handicap, at odds of 9/1. The latter has to be the one to take out of the race, as going down the inside, she met trouble at the fourth last, and was shuffled back, losing her momentum. However she bravely got going again, and coming from an impossible position ran on strongly to save her supporters their e.w. cash. With better luck in running she would have troubled the useful winner, Snow Leopardess, to whom she was conceding 9lbs, confirming that she is still improving, so keep her in mind for the 20f listed Mares Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham’s April fixture.

There will be no obstacles to negotiate in Saturday’s big handicap, but with twenty two runners coming under orders for the cavalry charge up Doncaster’s straight mile, the winner will have plenty of other challenges to overcome, underlining the benefit of previous experience in similar contests. Form over a straight mile, particularly at Newmarket, has figured in the profile of plenty of previous winners, as has plenty of racing experience, with all of the last six winners having competed at least fifteen times. Babodana, thirteen years ago was the last winner to carry more than 9st4lbs but with a very compressed handicap range of probably less than a stone between the top and bottom weights, don’t be surprised to see this barrier breached again. One of the more likely looking candidates to do so, is the Roger Charlton trained Yuften.

This 6yo son of Invincible Spirit has run sixteen times, winning on three occasions. Originally trained by William Haggas, he spent a period in Ireland under the tutelage of Johnny Murtagh until returning last summer to England, into the care of Mr Charlton, who has put the horse on a firmly upwards trajectory. The gelding found Newmarkets 7f on the sharp side, when going down by less than 1L last September, racing off a mark of 100, but showed what he was capable of three weeks later in the Balmoral Handicap over Ascot’s straight mile. Racing off a mark of 101 he took it up one furlong out, and stayed on well to win the valuable Class2 nineteen runner contest by a length. A winner over Newmarkets straight mile in 2014, Yuften made a highly satisfactory reappearance in Wolverhampton’s 7f Lincoln Trial three weeks ago, finishing strongly, to just fail, by a nose and a short head off Saturday’s mark of 105. He will be ridden by last years winning pilot, William Buick and has plenty to recommend him.

The 4yo Morando, trained by Roger Varian (pictured below), despite meeting trouble in running, finished seventh, 2 1/2L behind Yuften in that Balmoral Handicap, and meets the Charlton horse on 4lbs better terms. roger varianThe winner of his three previous races, including a competitive fourteen runner 1m Ayr Handicap, which he won very easily off a mark of 96, the only negative in his profile, would seem to be his lack of experience. However there are plenty of positives about this very progressive 4yo, not least the bullish reports from the Newmarket Gallops, and the likely easy ground at the weekend. In the hands of master trainer Varian’s, Morando has to be on the shortlist.

It was easy to see why John Gosden persevered with the difficult to train 6yo, Sacred Act, when, having his first run for nearly a year and a half, he came home in eye taking fashion from a near impossible position, to pull a Class3 Sandown handicap out of the fire off a mark of 89 last September. He is 7lbs higher at the weekend,  and his inexperience, (has only run five times) is against him, but trainer Gosden,  having won with  Expresso Star in 2009 knows what is required, and if getting into Saturday’s race, (needs five above him to come out) is worth considering.

Richard Fahey has won two of the last five renewals and is mob handed at the time of writing. His 2015 winner Gabrial is racing off an 8lbs higher mark and has been disappointing in Dubai this winter, but both his 5yo Third Time Lucky, and his 4yo Nimr have attracted some interest in the Markets. The former has been running well on the All Weather this winter, and has won over 11f at Newmarket, but faces a very tough task off a mark of 106, eleven pounds higher than he has ever won off, so perhaps Nimr represents his best chance. He hasn’t run on grass since last June, but won a 1m1/2f Class2 Wolverhampton handicap three weeks ago by 1 3/4L and is only one pound higher on Saturday. However he needs nine above him in the handicap to come out to get a run.

Selection : Morando

E.W.          : Yuften

Racing Tips EBF & TBA Mares Novices Hurdle

Racing Tips EBF & TBA MaresEBF & TBA Mares “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle Finale (limited handicap) Grade 2 2m4 1/2f Newbury Saturday – Following the heady fare of last week’s Cheltenham Festival, Saturday’s feature, The Mares Novices Hurdle Finale feels like something of an anticlimax, but it is always a pretty competitive affair that takes a useful performer to succeed. Nicky Henderson with three victories in the past decade has been the most successful handler, followed by Oliver Sherwood, who won with Jaunty Flight in 2008 and followed up with Argento Luna a year later. It has been a pretty punter friendly heat, with the winner coming from the first three in the betting on nine of the last thirteen occasions, and indeed the “Jolly” herself has come home in front four times.

Henderson’s representative this year is the lightly raced 7yo Kings Theatre mare, Theatre Territory. A winner in the point to point field she failed to win any of her three bumpers, but made a promising start to her hurdles career when easily winning a Uttoxeter maiden by 9L at odds of 4/9 in December (2m Gd/Sft). She probably found things happening too quickly over Taunton’s fast circuit on good ground three weeks later when a keeping on third to Coillte Lass in a Class1 listed Novices Hurdle. Given a greater test of stamina she looked the most likely winner when upped to 20 1/2f at Newbury three weeks later but fell two out when moving easily into contention. She meets the runner up in that contest, Pearl Royale on 3lbs better terms at the weekend. She disappointed last time finishing 4th of five runners in a Sandown Grade2, eleven lengths behind Saturday’s opponent, Happy Diva who finished second. This was not the ideal warm up for Saturday’s contest, a race in which the majority of winners have been first past the post in their penultimate outing, but it is worth noting that all of Henderson’s three previous successes were exceptions to this particular stat, and indeed his 2007 winner Karello Bay was beaten out of sight at odds of 2/5 before winning at Newbury. Theatre Territory is obviously fairly highly thought of at Seven Barrows and if putting in a clean round of jumping must be involved at the business end on Saturday.

With two winners already on the board, Oliver Sherwood certainly knows what is required, and his 5yo Hitherjacques Lady looks interesting. By Robin Des Champs out of a Bob Back mare her future probably lies over fences but she has won her last two races by wide margins in very taking style. She hacked up by 12L (Wincanton 21 1/2f heavy) at the beginning of Febuary and eighteen days later, again won very easily from subsequent maiden winner Carspindle, (Lingfield 19 1/2f heavy). Obviously well suited by heavy ground, she showed her versatility by winning a good ground Cheltenham Bumper last April, where she had Saturday’s opponent Tara View back in 6th place and Mr Sherwood has every right to be hopeful of a third victory in the race.

The Philip Hobbs trained Copper Kay seemed to appreciate the step up from 16f to 21f at Warwick at the end of December where, with the race at her mercy, she idled in front after the last, and got going again all too late to pull back Ellen’s Way who prevailed by a head. However the third was 12L further back and the Hobbs mare proved conclusively that the trip suited. She had a nice confidence booster, winning a 19 1/2f Doncaster Novice twenty two days ago very easily, so this seven year old daughter of Kayf Tara has to be on the shortlist for Saturday.

Alan King’s 6yo Tara View, also a daughter of Kayf Tara, has won her last four races, a Bumper at Bangor-on-Dee, and three Hurdle races at Ludlow. She beat Saturday’s opponent, Happy Diva by a neck in the first of them, over an inadequate two miles and meets her on a pound better terms at the weekend. She proved well suited by the step up to 21 1/2f five weeks later, winning by 1/2L from another of Saturday’s opponents Wizard’s Sliabh, who reopposes on 5lbs better terms on Saturday. Alan King’s mare however took another step forward seven weeks later, when contesting her first handicap, she prevailed by 2 1/2L off a mark of 124 (21f Ludlow Soft) earning her a new rating of 132. She looks a very progressive mare and the only concern would be very soft ground. With a fairly benign forecast she looks the one to beat.

Selection : Tara View

E.W.          : Copper Kay

Cheltenham Tips Stan James Champion Hurdle

 

Cheltenham Tips Stan James Champion Hurdle

Yanworth is the one to beat in this year’s Champion Hurdle says the Oddsguru

Stan James Champion Hurdle 2m 1/2f Cheltenham Tuesday – First run in 1927, when the winner, Blaris, pocketed the princely sum of £365 for his effort, next Tuesday’s victor will improve his or her owner’s bank balance, by a cool quarter of a million pounds. It has been a fairly punter friendly event over the last twenty years, with only four winners returning an S.P. Longer than 10/1, and indeed the “Jolly” has come home in front on three of the last five occasions. Willie Mullins has won four of the last six renewals, but Nicky Henderson remains one in front of him with five wins. Indeed Henderson could claim the overall, and outright title if adding another victory, which would put him one in front of the great Peter (Night Nurse, Sea pigeon, Saucy Kit) Easterby.

 

This year’s renewal looks a pretty open affair, and the stats strongly suggest, that whatever passes the post in front on Tuesday, will have won his penultimate race, and that won’t have been run more than seven weeks prior to the big day. The winner is also unlikely to be older than eight as only four in that age group have won in the last thirty five years. Strong festival form has been essential with fifteen of the last eighteen winners having won or been placed at the previous year’s meeting.

It is obviously a strong contest for trends and the one with the best fit this year is the Alan King trained Yanworth. The exciting 7yo has won seven of his eight starts over hurdles, five of them at Graded level, and but for Barry Geraghty steering such a wide course in last years “Neptune” he might well have a 100% record. Despite travelling considerably further than the rest of the field he was only beaten 1 3/4L by Yorkhill in that 21f contest. However he has won all his three races since, admittedly in more workmanlike than spectacular fashion, but on tracks that didn’t play to his strengths. He will be well served by the return to the the stiffer Prestbury Park course, and reported by previous winning trainer King, (Katchit 2008) to be in tip top condition, looks the one to beat.

chtibello

A successful breathing operation won’t harm Ch’Tibello’s chances

Dan Skelton’s 6yo Ch’Tibello gave Yanworth plenty to think about last time in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, when, in receipt of 4lbs, he made Alan King’s horse work for his 1L success. Connections felt that he wasn’t finishing off his races and has had a breathing operation since, which has been pronounced a success, so improvement can be expected. He looked a really talented individual when winning last year’s Scottish Champion Hurdle, and a Grade2 at Haydock in November, where he had last year’s runner up, My Tent Or Yours 4 1/4L back in third. In the hands of master trainer Skelton, guided by uber shrewd owner, Ian Marmion, it will come as no great surprise to see him involved at the business end on Tuesday.

The Henry De Bromhead trained Petit Mouchoir has looked a very progressive animal this season. He was going as well as anything when coming down at the third last in the Grade1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in November, and showed there were no ill effects when five weeks later he beat the 2/5 hotpot Nichols Canyon by 7L in a Leopardstown Grade1. A month later he notched up a second Grade1 (Irish Champion Hurdle) when holding on well to beat Tuesday’s opponent Footpad (rec 2lbs) by a length. Clearly progressive he is now rated within 4lbs of Yanworth, is owned by the Gigginstown Stud operation and comes from a stable having a great season so has to be on the shortlist.

If last year’s winner of the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Festival, Limini, is supplemented for Tuesday’s contest, she would be worth considering, as she would be following in the footpath of last years Heroine, stable companion, Annie Power. Following Cheltenham, Limini was placed in her next two races, both at Grade1 level, and was retired for the season. Having her first run for nine months she pleasantly surprised trainer Willie Mullins when easily beating 2/5 fav Apples Jade on Febuary 22nd. Connections feel that she is still on the upgrade and in receipt of that 7lbs mares allowance has to be considered a threat to all.

The Nicky Henderson trained Buveur D’Air has had an unusual preparation for a Champion Hurdle aspirant, winning a couple of small field Novice Chases and a listed Hurdle at Sandown thirty eight days ago. However the 6yo did finish third in last year’s Supreme Novices, and went on to take the Grade1 Novices Hurdle at the Aintree Festival so is not without hope of providing the Master of Seven Barrows with a sixth champion Hurdle.

Selection: Yanworth

E.W.         : Petit Mouchoir

Racing Tips BetBright Grimthorpe Handicap Chase

racing-tips-betbright-grimthorpe-handicap-chase
BetBright Grimthorpe Handicap Chase 3m2f Doncaster Saturday
– It was very disappointing that connections chose not to run our selection, Tea For Two in last week’s BetBright Chase. With so much in his favour he looked a very attractive bet at the 6/1 available at the time of writing, and I’m sure attracted plenty of ante post money. While connections have every right to campaign their horse as they see fit, a little consideration for the small punter, who after all keeps the “ship” afloat wouldn’t come amiss. Our E.W. suggestion, Irish Saint ran poorly and one can only conclude that three miles is beyond him. However upwards and onwards, with the sincere hope that we don’t see another well backed animal a late withdrawal from Saturday’s Grimthorpe Chase.

With two wins on the scoreboard, Kim Bailey has been the most successful handler, and he is represented again by last years winner, The Last Samurai. The 9yo was most impressive, taking it up three fences out and going clear from the last for a facile 10L win off a mark of 149. He went on to finish a marvellous second to Rule The World in the Grand National off the same mark, and showed that he was still progressing when finishing a Shd and 1L behind Vieux Lion Rouge and Highland Lodge in the Betfred Beecher Chase off a mark of 159 thirteen weeks ago. He was giving the winner a hefty 17lbs that day, and as David Pipe’s 8yo went on to take the Grade3 Grand National Trial at Haydock from Blaklion off a mark of 146, Kim Baileys horse doesn’t seem too badly treated off a mark of 161. Obviously connections will have one eye on Aintree, but it won’t come as a great surprise to see this super game animal, despite carrying 6lbs more than last year, in contention yet again.

A Doncaster winner in December 2015, the Alan King trained Sego Success, put up another decent performance over the course (3m) when finishing a staying on fourth behind No Duffer in December. Stable companion and course specialist, Ziga Boy in receipt of 4lbs, was 5L ahead of him in third place that day, and as he went on to win his next race, a Class1 handicap by 3 1/2L off a mark of 137, Sego Success looks nicely handicapped on a mark of 138, giving him a nice racing weight of 10st3lbs. He has to be forgiven a poor effort over 29f in the Warwickshire mud last time but, Alan Kings 9yo does seem to like Doncaster, and goes there with sound prospects on Saturday.

The Venetia Williams trained 7yo Yala Enki (pictured above) is trying the trip (26f) for the first time, but did look a stayer in the making, when winning over 23f, by 8L in the Haydock mud in December, from Vieux Lille, off a mark of 139. His pedigree, by the top class jumper, Nickname, out of a Cadoudal mare certainly shouts stamina, so is likely to find Saturday’s trip right up his street, and with plenty of rain about could find conditions ideal on only his third start over fences for Venetia.

Paul Nicholls has drawn a blank since winning this in 2000 but has two solid looking entries at the time of writing, the 7yo Present Man, and 8yo Vivaldi Collonges.

betbright-grimthorpe-handicap-chase

Vivaldi Collonges could go well if he gets a run says the Oddsguru.

The younger of the pair will have the benefit of Jack Sherwood’s 3lbs claim, and as a comfortable winner of a Grade2 Chase (3m good) over the course, despite jumping right, has to be considered. However he disappointed at Kempton last time, and being by Presenting out of a Strong Gale mare, is always going to be better suited by decent ground. The year older, Vivaldi Collonges won a 24 1/2f Ayr Handicap last April very easily by 5L and 21L from Kilbree Thief and One For Arthur off a mark of 143. His two runs this term have been disappointing but as a result he has been dropped to a mark of 148, and on that run in April, looks well handicapped. Spring is his time of year, so with a nice racing weight of 10st13lbs is definitely worth considering. A caveat would be that he also has an entry in the 4 o’c at Kelso on Saturday, a course he has won over in the past.

Having his first run for eight months, the Nicky Richards trained 8yo, Looking Well, ran a race full of promise, to finish second to Ziga Boy, albeit beaten 3 1/2L, in a Class1 handicap here at Doncaster five weeks ago, (3m). He runs off a mark only 5lbs higher on Saturday, (137) and with the extra 2f very much in his favour is worth a second look.

Selection : Yala Enki

E.W.          : Vivaldi Collonges (if abs. Sego Success)