32Red Sprint Cup Betting Tips

 

32Red Sprint Cup Betting Tips

The Charlie Hills trained 4yo gelding, Magical Memory is the Oddsguru’s selection for Saturday.

32Red Sprint Cup Stakes Group1 6f Haydock Saturday – First run in 1966, it was promoted to Group 1 status in 1988, and having bagged nine of the intervening twenty seven renewals, the classic generation have certainly had their fair share of the spoils. They are strongly represented again this year by the three fillies, Dancing Star, Only Mine, and Quiet Reflection. Henry Candy has been the most successful handler with two winners, the 7yo Markab in 2010, and last year with the 3yo, Twilight Son. It hasn’t been a great contest for the Irish with Tom Hogan’s, Gordon Lord Byron in 2013, being their sole winner since Vincent O’Brien collected with Abergwaun in 1972.

The Candy yard runs two with leading chances, last year’s victor, Twilight Son, and the hugely impressive winner of the Group1 6f July Stakes, Limato. This 4yo gelding cruised home over Newmarket’s 6f but couldn’t cope with the speedy Mecca’s Angel when dropped back to 5f in York’s Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes last time. However there was no disgrace in coming second and if he gets his “must have” fast conditions at the weekend will be hard to beat. If the ground softens Twilight Son will be the preferred candidate, and this 4yo colt has strong credentials. Having won this last year by a Shd from Strath Burn, he went on to further Group1 glory when taking the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at the Royal Meeting in a Blanket finish, with Saturday’s opponent Magical Memory less than 1/2L further back in 4th. Back on fast ground in the July Cup he finished a disappointing 14th behind stable companion Limato, but given his preferred easy surface at the weekend he could quite possibly add another Group1 to his already burgeoning C.V. enhancing further, his already attractiveness, as a future stallion.

The Charlie Hills trained 4yo gelding, Magical Memory finished third, less than a length behind Twilight Son in this last year, and made a great start to this season, winning the Group 3 Abernant Stakes, and the Group2 Duke of York Stakes in his first two races. He looked a tad unlucky when finishing a close 4th in the Diamond Jubilee, and again didn’t get the best of runs when finishing 7th in the July Cup. A slight setback has given him an enforced eight week holiday, a break from which his trainer thinks he has definitely benefited, and if this impressive winner of last years Stewards Cup turns up with his A game he is going to trouble them all.

This year’s winner of the Goodwood cavalry charge, the3yo filly Dancing Star, also came home in great style and looked a group class filly in the making. However she did have the best of the draw in the Stewards Cup and it remains to be seen how she will cope in this her first run at the top level.

The other 3yo filly Quiet Reflection has already run in two Group 1s, winning the first of them, the Commonwealth Cup at the Royal Meeting, and finishing 3rd last time, in the July Cup. This was a particularly meritorious effort as the suspicion lingers that she wasn’t well suited by that her first run on fast ground so if the rain arrives she will make them all go.

The 4yo gelding Strath Burn nearly caused an upset in this last year when going down by a Shd at odds of 33/1. Having disappointed in his next three runs he moved from Charlie Hills to sprint maestro Robert Cowell. His first run for his new yard was disappointing but he showed rather more last time, when a running on 3rd behind veteran, Kingsgate Native over an inadequate 5f. Substantial further progress is required but Cowell may be the man to find it and that blinding performance in last year’s renewal on his only course appearance makes him one to consider.

Four of the last 12 winners of this came from the Group1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deuville and this year’s race saw the Richard Fahey trained Donjuan Triumphant finish 2nd with David O’Meara’s 5yo gelding Suedois a couple of necks further back in 4th. The O’Meara horse had previously run a great race to finish second in The July Cup And meets Donjuan Triumphant on 4lbs better terms. Close up behind Twilight Son in the Diamond Jubilee and only 1/2L behind Magical Memory in the Duke of York he doesn’t have a lot to find and it wouldn’t be a great surprise if his talented trainer found it.

Selection: Magical Memory

E.W.  :  Suedois

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Doom Bar Celebration Mile Betting Tips

Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group2) Goodwood Saturday – There have been thirty eight renewals of the Celebration Mile since it’s elevation to Group2 status in 1977 and the classic generation, with 23 wins have definitely had the best of the argument. Sir Michael Stoute has trained the winner an impressive eight times, and on five of those occasions it was a 3yo who gained the honours, so his representative this year, Thikriyaat has to be of interest.

A 3yo gelded son of Azamour he has won four of his five races commencing with an All Weather victory over a mile on his sole 2yo appearance. Dropped back to seven furlongs for his reappearance at Newmarket in April, he won gamely from Tabaarak, who won next time out. Stepped up to Cl1 level for his next race, (7f Newmarket Gd-Fm May 14) he won again in solid workmanlike fashion. In his next contest he was sent off an 8/1 shot in the highly competitive Jersey Stakes (7f Sft) at the Royal Meeting. Despite a difficult passage he finished a highly commendable second, (beaten 2 1/2L) to the subsequent Deauville Group1 winner, and the close third to the Gurkha in the Group1 Sussex Stakes, Ribchester. Stepped back up to a mile over Saturday’s course and distance, (Gd-Fm) twenty nine days ago, he won again in his hallmark, tough, workmanlike style, and this doughty competitor, who seems to handle most conditions, looks the type who will be hard to beat at the weekend.

Clive Cox won this last year with a progressive 3yo, Kodi Bear, and is trying for a repeat with a similar type in Zonderland. This son of Dutch Art won a listed race at Sandown, (1m Gd-Fm) in May, and was then pitched in at the deep end when asked to tackle Group1 company in the Prix Jean-Prat at Chantilly six weeks later. He finished an abysmal eighth of nine, out the back, but showed he was back on track next time, when winning a Salisbury Group3 (1m Gd-Fm). The form doesn’t amount to a great deal but it does show the Cox contender is going the right way and suggests the Chantilly race can be ignored.

Richard Hannon’s admirable 5yo Toormore’s score is two wins and a place from four Goodwood appearances, and he put up yet another fine course performance last time, when finishing fourth to The Gurkha in the Sussex Stakes thirty one days ago. Both his course wins have been over 7f, but having won a Group2 contest over Sandowns stiff mile there are no stamina doubts. One of the leading two year olds of his generation, and a winner of the Group1 National Stakes at the Curragh, Toormore is still an entire, and connections must entertain hopes of this son of Arakan joining the stallion ranks when he eventually retires from the track. It will come as no surprise to see him involved at the finish so long as “firm” doesn’t appear in the going description, as he hasn’t won on ground faster than good.

Another contender at the weekend who would prefer good or softer ground is the William Haggas trained 4yo colt Hathal. Bought at the “Breeze-Ups”for the hefty sum of 320,000gns, he has yet to justify his mega price tag, but did show signs in his last two runs, that suggest it might be in the right ballpark. He went down to My Dream Boat by 2 1/2L in a 1 mile York handicap (Aug 21 2015) when giving the winner 7lbs, but the subsequent career of the victor has shown what a good performance that was, as My Dream Boat is now rated fully 30lbs higher. Hathal went on to take a Newbury listed race four weeks later (Sep 18 2015 7f Sft) but has been off the course since. It is a big ask to expect the Haggas horse to win as competitive race as this after a break of 344 days but his talented trainer is a past master at producing them at their best after a long absence, and it will not be a great surprise to see Hathal repay another slice of that large purchase price.

Having won the Group3 Diomed Stakes in June 2015, the Group2 Summer Mile the following month and finished a close second to Solow in the Group1 Sussex stakes a few weeks later, the future looked bright indeed for Peter Chappell-Hyam’s now 5yo, Arod. However in his next five races the wheels seem to have come off, and apart from a respectable display on his reappearance, the rest has been very disappointing. However the stable has been going through a prolonged period of underperformance which has to end sometime, and they obviously haven’t given up on their talented son of Teofilo. Certainly if this 5yo entire could bounce back and repeat his fine performance in last years Sussex Stakes he would be a danger to all.

Selection: Thikriyaat

E.W. : Toormore

Melrose Stakes Handicap Betting Tips

Betfred Melrose Stakes Handicap 1m6f York Saturday – With so many higher rated older animals qualifying for the Ebor, it is almost impossible for a progressive 3yo to get into the contest, and as a result the Melrose Handicap, which is run over the same distance, and is confined to the classic generation, has become the target for the improving 3yo stayer. This indeed has resulted in the “Melrose” becoming the classier of the two contests, surely an undesireable situation for the York executive! John Dunlop won the race three times between 1999 and 2009 and Luca Cumani collected on two occasions, but of Saturday’s contenders only Haggas, Johnston, and Stoute have managed to hit the back of the net.

Yorkshireman William Haggas enjoys nothing more than a victory on the Knavesmire, and has high hopes of emulating his 2012 win with Guarantee. He carried 9st 4lbs to victory, and coincidentally, the Haggas contender at the weekend, Dal Harraild, is set to carry the same weight. A winner of three of his eight starts, he impressed when taking a Class3 handicap at Musselburgh off a mark of 87 at the beginning of June. As the runner up, and third both scored next time out, the form looked solid and he was duly sent off a 5/1 shot for an Ascot Class2 handicap next time out. Racing off a mark of 95 in the 12f contest he looked unlucky when going down by a couple of heads, but made no mistake three weeks later when winning a valuable Class2 Goodwood handicap off a mark of 98. He had five of Saturday’s opponents behind him that day, and some of them must fancy their chances of reversing the form on better terms on Saturday, not least Jaameh and Shaaroh.

The former, a colt by Iffraj and trained by Master Trainer, Mark Johnston, finished 4th at Goodwood where he was beaten less than a length despite getting upset in the stalls, and looking ill at ease on the track. He meets Dal Harraid on 3lbs better terms so has to be considered, but it has to be said that the Haggas horse also had to wait, and wait, for a gap, so it wont come as a great surprise if the placings are confirmed.

The Sir Michael Stoute (pictured above) trained Sea the Stars colt Shraooh might prove a tougher nut to crack. Ridden by Frankie Dettori he was only a short head behind Dal Harriad at Goodwood and as it was only his fifth time on a racecourse plenty of improvement can be anticipated. He finished strongly that day and with plenty of stamina on the distaff, the step up to 14f looks sure to suit. Two pounds  worse off and with Dettori again doing the steering on  Shraooh the Haggas runner is going to have to pull out all the stops.

Irish Maestro, Aidan O’Brien has never won this, but two of his three previous contenders have been placed, so any runner from this yard is worth a second look. At the time of writing the Galileo colt Kellstorm is his most likely representative, and this very lightly raced full brother to staying sensation, Order of St George, you would think is highly likely to improve for the  greater stamina test. Unplaced on his only 2yo appearance, he finished 3rd, only 4L behind stablemate US Army Ranger, on his seasonal debut, and followed up with an easy win in a Tipperary maiden. He can be excused his second in a muddling four runner affair at Naas 101 days ago, and gets in here off a mark of 92, giving him a nice racing weight of 8st8lbs. Up in trip and racing on good ground for the first time in his career we might be forgiven for thinking by 3 .O’Clock on Saturday, what a handicap snip he was.

The Willie Mullins trained Laws Of Spin demonstrated that the trip would hold no fears when comfortably winning over a furlong further at Leopardstown sixteen days ago, and this son of Lawman has quite a progressive profile. He won a 10f Ballinrobe handicap (July 18th), despite stumbling over a furlong out, off a mark of 75 but, stepped up to 15f in the Leopardstown contest seventeen days later, he won going away, off a mark of 82. The step up in trip has clearly been the key to this animal and in the hands of this trainer it will come as no surprise to see further progress at the weekend off his new mark of 89.

Unraced as a 2yo the Michael Bell trained Forth Bridge has only had the three runs and showed very little in the first of them, coming home a well beaten third of four in a 10f soft ground Nottingham maiden in April. However stepped up to 12f a fortnight later, he ran a much more promising race when finishing second in a Sailsbury maiden. He was beaten 2 3/4L by Harbour Law, and had the 3rd, Real Dominion, 4 1/2L behind. As all three won next time out the form looks solid. Forth Bridge duly won his maiden in battling style at Haydock thirty nine days later in a contest which hasn’t really worked out but he remains an animal of some potential.

Selection: Shraaoh

E.W.       : Laws Of Spin

2016 Great St Wilfred Stakes Betting Tips

2016 Great St Wilfred Stakes Betting Tips

William Hill Great St Wilfred Stakes 6f Handicap Ripon Saturday – Named for the patron saint of Ripon, the last five runnings have been dominated by the two Yorkshire based handlers, Richard Fahey and David O’Meara. The latter has won three times with Fahey collecting twice, including last year’s renewal. Surprisingly for such a competitive contest the winners are usually well found in the market, with ten of the last fifteen winners returned at SP’s less than 12/1, and indeed the last three years have seen the Jolly himself come home in front. Dandy Nicholls has also struck twice in the race and two of his runners, Orion’s Bow, and Kimberella are towards the top of the market.

A winner of his previous five races Orion’s Bow lost nothing in defeat when finishing second to the better drawn, and well handicapped Dancing Star in the Steward’s Cup a fortnight ago, and doesn’t look badly treated of a 3lbs higher mark on Saturday. However lack of course experience would be more of a concern as not every animal handles Ripon’s undulations.

There are no such concerns with stable mate Kimberella who has won once and been placed twice from his seven course appearances. He also ran in the “Stewards” and from an even worse draw than his stable companion, finished 13th of the 27 runners, (beaten 4 1/2L) but as he never really got a clear run, he is easily excused. A reproduction of his previous effort, when winning a Class2 handicap at York, where he beat Intisaab and Related by 1 3/4L and a head off a mark of 99 would give him every chance, so despite racing off a 6lbs higher mark at the weekend, he has to be given serious consideration.

The David O’Meara operation after a quiet period is beginning to fire on all cylinders so confidence in his 5yo Intisaab has to be increased. Drawn on the wrong side at York plenty of use had to be made of him by the 3lbs claimer Shelly Birkett to get into a challenging position so in the circumstances his 2nd placing was pretty commendable. If again partnered by the talented Birkett he will meet his York conquerer Kimberella on 5lbs better terms for that 1 3/4L so it should be much closer between them on Saturday.

Another of the O’Meara entries, Mujassam, will need a few in the handicap above him to come out to get a run but if doing so could be interesting. Campaigned the last twice over 7f, he had put up a decent performance the last time he ran over 6f, finishing 3rd at Headquarters off a mark of 97. Racing off a 3lbs lower mark at the weekend he could be worth a second look.

Richard Fahey’s best chance of emulating the success of Don’t Touch last year would seem to lie with the 4yo Nuno Tristan. He looked a tad unlucky when finishing 5th over 7f at the Royal Meeting in June and again didn’t enjoy the best of runs when beaten a neck and 3/4L by Hoof It and Saturdays opponent, the Paul Midgely trained Related at Goodwood fourteen days ago. He is 2lbs better off with the Midgely runner on Saturday’, so given a trouble free passage could make them all go.

Another of the Fahey entries, particularly if it came up soft, that could make his presence felt is the 6yo Tatlisu. He also would need a few above him to come out to get a run, but does have plenty of form over the course, and his run at Haydock on soft ground at the beginning of July, when he got to within 2 1/2L of Hoof It off a mark of 99 would give him place prospects at least off Saturday’s mark of 95.

Richard Whitaker won this with the 7yo Damika in 2010 and must fancy his chances of a repeat with his 6yo course specialist Pipers Note. He has won four of the six course and distance handicaps he has contested on good ground or faster, last time off a mark of 99 in April 2015. Recent runs haven’t been that encouraging but does mean that he gets in on Saturday off a mark of 94.

Tom Dascombe’s 4yo Snap Shots guaranteed himself a place in the lineup when winning a course and distance Class3 handicap twelve days ago off a mark of 90. He showed plenty of grit when battling back, having been headed inside the last 100yards to win by a nose. Placed on both previous course visits this son of Kodiac could well be improving and looks well treated off 94.

Nameitwhatyoulike has only the one course victory but has certainly shown his aptitude for the venue by being placed in five of his six other Ripon appearances. He made a highly satisfactory reappearance in April over course and distance finishing 3rd off a mark of 99. He can be forgiven his run behind Orion’s Bow at Hamilton nearly three months later where he ran too freely. He does like to get his toe in so if the heavens open is worth considering to finish in the first four.

Selection: Kimberella

E.W.    : Mujassam (if abs. Intisaab)

Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes Odds Tips

Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes Odds Tips

Sir Michael Stoute’s Arab Spring is fancied to go  close this weekend in Haydock’s showpiece race.


Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes Group3 10 1/2f Haydock Saturday
– First run in 1986, Saturday will see the 28th renewal (no race 2002) and the classic generation, with sixteen victories, including last year, when Roger Varian’s Intilaaq won at the prohibitive odds of 1/3, have had much the best of the argument. Sir Michael Stoute, who is enjoying something of a renaissance after a number of poor seasons, has been the most successful handler with three wins, interestingly, all with older animals. Both Mark Johnston and Saeed bin Suroor have both hit the back of the net twice.

The sole Stoute representative this time is the 6yo entire, Arab Spring, and it is intriguing that the yard is persevering with this clearly fragile horse. He has had only the eight runs in his entire career, the most recent 436 days ago when he finished a neck behind Western Hymn in a Sandown Group3. He is an animal that clearly goes well fresh, and a repeat of last terms first time out performance when he won convincingly from that good yardstick Pether’s Moon, in a Newbury Group3, would see him go close.

Last year the Oddsguru went for Roger Varian’s Intilaaq.

The Mark Johnston trained 5yo Fire Fighting ran a brave race last week at Goodwood holding on by a neck in a Cl2 handicap off a mark of 102. Fire Fighting, like the men who do, is a tough and brave individual, and is clearly in good heart, but he is fully exposed, and it is hard to see where the further 12lbs improvement necessary to win this is to come from.

The Godolphin operation has won this twice before, with the 4yo’s Hunters Light, (2012) and Tamayaz, (1996). They have two entered this time, Basem and Scottish, and their best chance would seem to lie with the latter, a 4yo gelding by Teofilo who looks very progressive. He was having only his ninth outing when comfortably taking a 10f listed race at Newbury on Gd/Fm three weeks ago, where he looked well up to Group3 level. He had finished 3rd on his reappearance seven weeks earlier, when beaten a neck and 4 1/2L by Time Test and Western Hymn, which does give him plenty to find with Arab Spring, but judging by the Newbury run, plenty of progress has been made in the meantime, and he is short listed.

John Gosden’s 3yo gelding Foundation was sold as a yearling for the considerable sum of €190,000, and it looked money well spent when he won his first three races as a 2yo, including at Group2 level. He was slightly disappointing when only managing second on Gd /Sft on his reappearance over a mile, but, stepped up to 10 1/2f in the Dante at York on faster ground, he did well to finish a neck and 1 1/2L behind the top class pair Wings of Desire and Deauville. Sent off the 4/1 fav on soft ground for the French Derby he trailed in last of the sixteen runners so does seem to need decent ground. Given good or faster ground at the weekend this two times course winner would be dangerous to ignore, particularly as he avoids any penalties for his 2yo success at group 2 level.

Roger Charlton runs the highly consistent 4yo colt by Galileo, Decorated Knight. He has never been out of the first four in all ten racecourse appearances, winning four of them. He was particularly impressive last time in a Leopardstown Group3 (1m1f Gd/Fm) 23 days ago when firmly putting Royal Hunt Cup winner Portage in his place. He does have to carry a 4lbs penalty for the Leopardstown win, but looks a highly progressive type and it will come as no surprise to see him competing at a higher level in the future.

Richard Fahey’s 7yo veteran Gabrial has been plying his trade at Group1 and 2 level over a mile, and considering the standard of the opposition has not disgraced himself. He finished 5th, in the Group1 Sussex Stakes last week just 3 1/2L behind the best miler around, The Gurkha, and in his previous run, a Group2 at Ascot, he was only 2 3/4L and a short head behind Mutakayyef and last week’s impressive winner of the Group2 Qatar Lennox Stakes, Dutch Connection. He has been campaigned over further in the past without success but perhaps now a step up in trip might just suit this enigmatic type.

David Lanigan steps his 3yo handicapper Gershwin up to Group class for the first time and he does have a progressive profile. He won off a mark of 83 in May and was probably a tad unlucky to be caught in the last stride off 93 six weeks later. Considerably more is required at the weekend but this very well bred Colt might just be up to it. By prolific winning sire Shamardal, his listed winning dam is a half sister to the Group1 and 2 winning Giofa, and to the listed winner Gomati, so it would be no great surprise to see Lanigan’s Colt make significant progress.

 Selection: Decorated Knight. (if abs. Scottish)

E.W.   : Arab Spring.